Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.
Analysis / CommentaryRussian Inconsistency on Arms Control Is an Opportunity for EuropeByHeather WilliamsPublished May 12, 2025While Russia has been inconsistent in its messaging about arms control, Moscow has remained consistent in insisting that European nuclear powers be part of any future agreement—both messages present challenges, but also opportunities for the future of arms control.
Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / CommentaryEscalation as a Path to Peace: Risk Tolerance and Negotiations in UkraineByLachlan MackenziePublished Jan 3, 2025The incoming President Donald Trump has made achieving a rapid, negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine a cornerstone of his foreign policy agenda. It is not clear, however, that the Kremlin sees a need to offer concessions.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon Vol. 7ByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 3, 2025The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2024 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates across deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation communities. Series On The Horizon
Analysis / CommentaryReviving Chemical Weapons Accountability in a Multipolar WorldByDoreen Horschig and Natasha HallPublished Nov 25, 2024Next week’s 29th Session of the Conference of States Parties of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is an opportunity to revitalize accountability and global cooperation in an age of impunity.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityA Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space ByLuke WidenhousePublished Sep 30, 2024In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine NowByHeather WilliamsPublished Sep 27, 2024Putin’s changes Russia’s nuclear doctrine show increased reliance on nuclear weapons for coercion in the Ukraine War. By expanding nuclear use conditions, Russia aims to deter Western aid and divide European allies, signaling a greater willingness to escalate.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe GIUK Gap: A New Age of A2/AD in Contested Strategic Maritime Spaces ByShane WardPublished Sep 12, 2024The global strategic environment is ripe for technology-driven great power competition once more. Russia’s war in Ukraine and pursuit of novel nuclear weapon delivery vehicles, coupled with China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and capabilities, mean the United States must assess its capabilities and posture in more theaters simultaneously than ever before. Among them, contested maritime spaces…
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThinking about Vladimir Putin’s Thinking: Will He Push the Button? ByLinde DesmaelePublished Sep 4, 2024There are numerous reasons why it would seem unwise for Putin to deliberately use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. One can hope that he will come to this conclusion, or that his advisors will convince him of this very case. Still, it is important not to project one’s own framing of a situation onto the Kremlin and assume that it shares the same risk tolerance. Any potential costs of nuclear use must be weighed against the costs of non-use and the perceived benefits of use and take into consideration Putin’s risk propensity. There is simply a lot we do not know about Putin’s thought process and history is fraught with miscommunication and misunderstanding. This is by no means to suggest that Ukraine and its partners should concede to Putin. Supporting Ukraine is a just cause. However, the best path forward remains one that acknowledges the serious risks involved, strives to reduce nuclear tensions and reinforces the nuclear taboo.