Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Uncertain Future of U.S.-Russia Arms ControlByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished Feb 23, 2024Time is running out for the United States and Russia to revive cooperation on arms control before the expiration of New START in 2026. Despite efforts from the Biden administration to kickstart progress, Russia remains an unwilling partner for the foreseeable future.
Analysis / CommentaryThinking about the Unthinkable: Five Nuclear Weapons Issues to Address in 2024ByKelsey HartiganPublished Feb 23, 2024The United States needs to address five key nuclear weapons challenges in 2024. Managing these challenges will require leadership and careful attention from the highest levels—a commodity that will no doubt be in short supply in 2024.
Analysis  Information Pollution and What It Means for Arms ControlByJoseph RodgersPublished Jan 29, 2024Over the past decade, Russia has stepped up its disinformation campaigns to erode trust in arms control. Russian disinformation campaigns have served as a low-cost tactic for Moscow to spread confusion and distrust in the United States and other Western democracies.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.
Analysis / CommentaryHow to Get Away with a Nuclear TestByHeather WilliamsPublished Nov 17, 2023If Russia does return to nuclear testing, Putin will have assumed that the international community will be silent or divided on the issue—essentially, he would be betting that Russia can get away with it. But a return to nuclear testing, a well-recognized taboo, could backfire for Moscow.
Analysis / CommentaryConventional-Nuclear Integration to Strengthen DeterrenceByDoreen Horschig and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Nov 17, 2023The United States and its allies should be prepared to fight a conventional war under the nuclear shadow.
Analysis  Arms Control after Ukraine: Integrated Arms Control and Deterring Two Peer CompetitorsByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Dec 16, 2022This paper will first examine ways that the war in Ukraine may impact prospects for arms control, then pose first-order questions about future U.S. arms control policy.
Analysis / ReportIntegrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic CompetitionByRebecca Hersman, Suzanne Claeys and Heather WilliamsPublished Jan 25, 2022Can contemporary arms control keep pace with the rapid rate of change in both geopolitics and technology? This study examines the implication and prospects for the future of arms control in a highly competitive security environment in which challenges from advanced technologies and diminished state control over processes of verification become increasingly prominent features, even as the scope and modalities of arms control grow more complex and multifaceted.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityWeapons in the Hand of God: The Russian Orthodox Church and Russia’s Nuclear Weapons EstablishmentByAndrew HollisPublished Aug 16, 2019It was early September 1943. The Soviets had just won a major victory over the Germans in Stalingrad.