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Reactions from the Next Generation: “The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age”

As a follow-on to The Fragile Balance of Terror, the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies invited eight early- and mid-career experts to offer their reflections on the volume’s chapters and conclusions.

Alternative Nuclear Futures: Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence

The U.S. extended deterrence could change drastically in the next decade due to increasing nuclear threats from countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The credibility of U.S. security guarantees for its allies is at risk, and the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues used an “alternative futures” approach to explore how this mission might be affected. In all scenarios explored, the United States faces a credibility problem that will require a new approach to consulting, planning, training, and operating with allies.

Integrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic Competition

Can contemporary arms control keep pace with the rapid rate of change in both geopolitics and technology? This study examines the implication and prospects for the future of arms control in a highly competitive security environment in which challenges from advanced technologies and diminished state control over processes of verification become increasingly prominent features, even as the scope and modalities of arms control grow more complex and multifaceted.

The Adversary Gets a Vote

As the Department of Defense (DoD) further develops integrated deterrence as its overarching strategic concept, it will become increasingly important to appreciate the stability risks and benefits associated with emerging intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, from both an arms-race and crisis-management perspective.

On the Horizon: A Collection of the Papers from the Next Generation

The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2020 Nuclear Scholars Initiative and the PONI Conference Series. These papers explore such topics as the impacts of emerging technologies and capabilities, deep-diving on nuclear strategy and national policies, proposing paths forward for addressing proliferation challenges, and enhancing arms control in contentious environments.

Deep Dive Debrief: Strategic Stability and Competition in the Arctic

This brief reflects discussions and insights from a deep dive workshop convened by PONI at Kings Bay Submarine Base on strategic stability and great power competition in the Arctic. This brief focuses on how climate, economic, and political trends in the Arctic region impact U.S. strategic interests, and the implications of these trends for nuclear stability, policy, and posture.

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