Analysis / CommentaryPitting Nuclear Modernization Against Powering AI: Trump’s Plans for the U.S. Plutonium StockpileByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 14, 2025The Trump administration plans to redirect plutonium from the national stockpile to civilian nuclear energy projects, including to power AI data centers. How will this plan impact U.S. nuclear modernization plans and national security?
Analysis Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear RiskByHeather Williams, Joseph Rodgers and Elizabeth KosPublished Sep 16, 2025The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.
Analysis / CommentaryParading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the ShadowsByHeather Williams and Joseph RodgersPublished Sep 8, 2025China’s Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / CommentaryDamage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuilt?ByJoseph Rodgers, Heather Williams and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.Published Aug 6, 2025U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.
Analysis / CommentaryOptions for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear FacilityByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 20, 2025There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of ThemByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 18, 2025Further strikes on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent, but their success is just one factor that will shape Iran’s nuclear future—along with possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and support from Russia and China.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Do the Israeli Strikes Mean for Iran’s Nuclear Program?ByHeather Williams, Doreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 18, 2025Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. The future of Iran’s program and regional proliferation risks will depend on the success of Israel’s campaign, the international response, and Tehran’s perceived need for nuclear weapons.
Analysis / CommentaryWe Need More Off-Ramps for Nuclear CrisesByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025States should develop off-ramps—such as crisis communications, third-party mediation, and narrative manipulation—now and in advance of crises in order to reduce the risk of nuclear use.
Analysis / CommentaryRussian Inconsistency on Arms Control Is an Opportunity for EuropeByHeather WilliamsPublished May 12, 2025While Russia has been inconsistent in its messaging about arms control, Moscow has remained consistent in insisting that European nuclear powers be part of any future agreement—both messages present challenges, but also opportunities for the future of arms control.