Analysis / Commentary2026 CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByHeather WilliamsPublished Feb 12, 2026Intensifying strategic challenges and growing nuclear risks reinforce the need for continued unity and close coordination among the United States, the United Kingdom, and France as responsible nuclear weapons states within NATO.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Truths About the End of New START and What It Means for Strategic CompetitionByHeather WilliamsPublished Feb 2, 2026The expiration of New START does not necessarily foretell an arms race or a massive U.S. nuclear buildup. Instead, the expiration of the treaty may be an opportunity for a new era of arms control.
Analysis / ReportProject Atom 2025: Escalation Management in Acute and Protracted Conflicts in the Indo-PacificByHeather Williams, Lachlan Mackenzie, Elena Tiedens, Mike Albertson, Matthew Costlow, Adam Mount, Kori Schake and Rebecca ShrimptonPublished Jan 8, 2026To generate new thinking on the risks of escalation in the Indo-Pacific, the Project on Nuclear Issues invited a group of experts to develop competing strategies for managing escalation with China.
Analysis / ReportStrategic Trends 2025ByNicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan Mackenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams and Reja YounisPublished Nov 18, 2025In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.
Analysis  Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Nov 5, 2025President Putin’s instruction for Russian military and political leaders to begin “preparations for nuclear weapons tests” follows President Trump’s similar order last week, but also fits a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Analysis  Can the United States Immediately Return to Nuclear Testing?ByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 30, 2025President Trump’s post raises technical questions about how and if the United States could “immediately” return to nuclear testing, and political considerations about the signaling behind nuclear testing and who would benefit most from a return to testing.
Analysis / CommentaryPitting Nuclear Modernization Against Powering AI: Trump’s Plans for the U.S. Plutonium StockpileByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 14, 2025The Trump administration plans to redirect plutonium from the national stockpile to civilian nuclear energy projects, including to power AI data centers. How will this plan impact U.S. nuclear modernization plans and national security?
Analysis Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear RiskByHeather Williams, Joseph Rodgers and Elizabeth KosPublished Sep 16, 2025The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.
Analysis / CommentaryParading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the ShadowsByHeather Williams and Joseph RodgersPublished Sep 8, 2025China’s Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.