Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryChina’s Waterlogged Missiles Don’t MatterByHeather WilliamsPublished Jan 29, 2024While recent reports of widespread corruption in China’s Strategic Rocket Force have rightly raised questions about the reliability of their nuclear forces, U.S. policymakers should not stray from current strategic plans and efforts to advance risk reduction with Beijing.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.
Analysis / CommentaryHow to Get Away with a Nuclear TestByHeather WilliamsPublished Nov 17, 2023If Russia does return to nuclear testing, Putin will have assumed that the international community will be silent or divided on the issue—essentially, he would be betting that Russia can get away with it. But a return to nuclear testing, a well-recognized taboo, could backfire for Moscow.
Analysis Project Atom 2023ByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie, Robert Soofer, Tom Karako, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Franklin Miller, Leonor Tomero and Jon WolfsthalPublished Nov 17, 2023A Competitive Strategies Approach for U.S. Nuclear Posture through 2035
Analysis / ReportReactions from the Next Generation: “The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age”ByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Suzanne Claeys, Joseph Rodgers, Lachlan Mackenzie and Jess LinkPublished Jul 12, 2023As a follow-on to The Fragile Balance of Terror, the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies invited eight early- and mid-career experts to offer their reflections on the volume’s chapters and conclusions.
Analysis / ReportAlternative Nuclear Futures: Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear DeterrenceByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Joseph Rodgers and Reja YounisPublished May 9, 2023The U.S. extended deterrence could change drastically in the next decade due to increasing nuclear threats from countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The credibility of U.S. security guarantees for its allies is at risk, and the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues used an “alternative futures” approach to explore how this mission might be affected. In all scenarios explored, the United States faces a credibility problem that will require a new approach to consulting, planning, training, and operating with allies.
Analysis / ReportIrreversibility in Nuclear DisarmamentByHeather Williams, Jess Link and Joseph RodgersPublished Feb 28, 2023The Project on Nuclear Issues commissioned a series of think pieces to explore potential approaches and challenges to IND.
Analysis / CommentaryRussia Suspends New START and Increases Nuclear RisksByHeather WilliamsPublished Feb 23, 2023The suspension of New START further contributes to the demise of arms control, and it also eliminates one of the few remaining forums for dialogue between Moscow and Washington at a time of rising nuclear risks.
Analysis  Arms Control after Ukraine: Integrated Arms Control and Deterring Two Peer CompetitorsByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Dec 16, 2022This paper will first examine ways that the war in Ukraine may impact prospects for arms control, then pose first-order questions about future U.S. arms control policy.