Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDespite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran LoomsBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Apr 24, 2025While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHow a Second Trump Term Could Shape U.S. Nuclear Posture in Europe and the Indo-Pacific ByMariam KvaratskheliaPublished Apr 10, 2025The early days of Trump’s second term have been marked by statements signaling a departure from his first-term nuclear doctrine—but geopolitical realities in two key theaters and potential congressional pushback are likely to limit the extent of that pivot.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) as India’s Bid for Conventional DeterrenceByMandar RansingPublished Feb 25, 2025Since its inception, nuclear deterrence has been viewed as the ultimate deterrence. Concepts like MAD ensured nuclear peace for many decades, but with the growing geopolitical tensions and conflicts involving nuclear states, the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is being undermined. For India, it is concerning as it shares contested borders with two nuclear nations. Issues like nuclear doctrine and conventional asymmetry necessitate India strengthening its conventional deterrence. The Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) is a right step but needs clarity in the Command and Control (C2) structure. IRF in the future can expand its operations provided it gets sufficient firepower.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityMissile Defense of the ICBM Leg: A Step Towards a More Robust Strategic PostureByEli GlickmanPublished Jan 24, 2025Eli Glickman argues that advances in the Russian and Chinese ICBM forces (MIRVing, CEP reduction, etc.) are increasing the vulnerability of U.S. ICBMs. I draw on historical case studies to illustrate how point missile defense of ICBM fields is a feasible option to offset this challenge, as opposed to more expensive, controversial systems like a road-mobile Sentinel ICBM.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon Vol. 7ByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 3, 2025The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2024 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates across deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation communities. Series On The Horizon
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHezbollah’s Fall: Implications for Iran’s Nuclear AspirationsByBailey SchiffPublished Nov 8, 2024In ten days, Israel decapitated Hezbollah as an organization, leaving behind only fighters previously deemed not important enough to have a beeper. Beyond a tactical operation, by electing to conduct all three operations in daylight, civilians in Lebanon and Iran were forced to confront Hezbollah’s weakness. Although these operations were transformative, this crippling of Hezbollah will likely send nuclear shockwaves through the region by incentivizing both Tehran’s nuclear weaponization and Israeli targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities. As the region braces for continued conflict between Israel and Iran after the U.S. election, rather than striking nuclear facilities, Israel should target economic centers of gravity, bolster influence operations, and leverage domestic unrest in Iran and Lebanon to destabilize the regime. At the same time, the U.S. should raise the political and economic costs of maintaining a nuclear program. This approach can foster democracy, enhance Mossad intelligence operations, and compel Iran to reallocate military financing, laying the groundwork for lasting peace.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityA Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space ByLuke WidenhousePublished Sep 30, 2024In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe GIUK Gap: A New Age of A2/AD in Contested Strategic Maritime Spaces ByShane WardPublished Sep 12, 2024The global strategic environment is ripe for technology-driven great power competition once more. Russia’s war in Ukraine and pursuit of novel nuclear weapon delivery vehicles, coupled with China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and capabilities, mean the United States must assess its capabilities and posture in more theaters simultaneously than ever before. Among them, contested maritime spaces…
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityPart 2: Challenges and Solutions for Combating Nuclear Mis- and Disinformation ByBrian CookPublished Sep 6, 2024There is no catchall solution for completely stopping mis- and disinformation. It might be impossible to untangle the technology, psychology, and politics and social issues that all contribute to the spread and believability of false information. This is true for nuclear mis- and disinformation as well. But recognizing the challenges and thinking about possible solutions is an important start, especially for such an impactful and increasingly salient topic like nuclear weapons.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThinking about Vladimir Putin’s Thinking: Will He Push the Button? ByLinde DesmaelePublished Sep 4, 2024There are numerous reasons why it would seem unwise for Putin to deliberately use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. One can hope that he will come to this conclusion, or that his advisors will convince him of this very case. Still, it is important not to project one’s own framing of a situation onto the Kremlin and assume that it shares the same risk tolerance. Any potential costs of nuclear use must be weighed against the costs of non-use and the perceived benefits of use and take into consideration Putin’s risk propensity. There is simply a lot we do not know about Putin’s thought process and history is fraught with miscommunication and misunderstanding. This is by no means to suggest that Ukraine and its partners should concede to Putin. Supporting Ukraine is a just cause. However, the best path forward remains one that acknowledges the serious risks involved, strives to reduce nuclear tensions and reinforces the nuclear taboo.