Analysis / Next Gen Community

Disclaimer: The views expressed on the Next Generation Community Analysis are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) or the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI). CSIS and PONI do not endorse any of the information or opinions contained on this website.

All Analysis

Write for us

Become a guest author with PONI to have your analysis published on our site.

AI at the Nexus of Nuclear Deterrence: Enhancing Left of Launch Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance “left of launch” operations—preemptive strategies aimed at neutralizing missile threats before launch—by improving real-time data analysis, threat detection, and decision-making. While AI offers strategic advantages in missile defense and deterrence, it also introduces significant risks related to miscalculation and escalation, necessitating a cautious and balanced integration into nuclear strategies.

America First, Allies, and Adversaries: Balancing Arms Control and Nonproliferation 

President Trump appears willing to make significant concessions on regional security issues—potentially including support for key partners—to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Three areas of U.S. policy will influence whether this approach raises the risks of allied proliferation: the administration’s approach to nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and security concessions.

Despite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran Looms

While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.

Header Image: Handout via Getty Images