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A Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space 

In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.  

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The GIUK Gap: A New Age of A2/AD in Contested Strategic Maritime Spaces 

The global strategic environment is ripe for technology-driven great power competition once more. Russia’s war in Ukraine and pursuit of novel nuclear weapon delivery vehicles, coupled with China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and capabilities, mean the United States must assess its capabilities and posture in more theaters simultaneously than ever before. Among them, contested maritime spaces…

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Part 2: Challenges and Solutions for Combating Nuclear Mis- and Disinformation  

There is no catchall solution for completely stopping mis- and disinformation. It might be impossible to untangle the technology, psychology, and politics and social issues that all contribute to the spread and believability of false information. This is true for nuclear mis- and disinformation as well. But recognizing the challenges and thinking about possible solutions is an important start, especially for such an impactful and increasingly salient topic like nuclear weapons. 

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Thinking about Vladimir Putin’s Thinking: Will He Push the Button? 

There are numerous reasons why it would seem unwise for Putin to deliberately use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. One can hope that he will come to this conclusion, or that his advisors will convince him of this very case. Still, it is important not to project one’s own framing of a situation onto the Kremlin and assume that it shares the same risk tolerance. Any potential costs of nuclear use must be weighed against the costs of non-use and the perceived benefits of use and take into consideration Putin’s risk propensity. There is simply a lot we do not know about Putin’s thought process and history is fraught with miscommunication and misunderstanding. This is by no means to suggest that Ukraine and its partners should concede to Putin. Supporting Ukraine is a just cause. However, the best path forward remains one that acknowledges the serious risks involved, strives to reduce nuclear tensions and reinforces the nuclear taboo.  

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Arms Control Cannot Be Dead: Why the US should actively plan for engaging with Russia and China in the Long Term

Presently, the future of arms control looks bleak. Following its illegal re-invasion (Russia invaded the region of Crimea in 2014) of Ukraine in 2022, Russia suspended its participation in the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and froze the United States-Russia Strategic Stability dialogue. At the same time, the People’s Republic of China…

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Exploring Tactical Nuclear Possibilities in Japan

Japanese Doubts Over the Credibility of the Current Extended Deterrence Select Japanese politicians have discussed the need for NATO-style nuclear sharing in Japan as early as 2016. This became a more well-known conversation when ex-Prime Minister Abe publicly reintroduced the topic after Russia invaded Ukraine. PM Abe commented “Japan is a signatory to the Nuclear…

On the Horizon Vol. 6

The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2023 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates across deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation communities.  

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