Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDespite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran LoomsBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Apr 24, 2025While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityNon-Linear, Unpredictable, and Dangerous Crisis-Escalation in South AsiaBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Jan 7, 2022The advent of disruptive technologies and increasing potency of the information landscape is likely to alter the hierarchy of escalation and add to the complexity of the strategic milieu in South Asia.