Analysis / 

Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control

Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?

Published
April 23, 2025
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The war in Ukraine has created an inflection point for Euro-Atlantic security. With the New START Treaty expiring in 2026 and no clear successor in sight, arms control as we know it is at risk of ending. The CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) set out to explore prospects for arms control with Russia following the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The study used an alternative futures methodology to identify consistent trends along with potential moments of opportunity for strengthening strategic stability and arms control. 

In nearly all future scenarios, the findings reveal that competition with Russia will likely continue after the Ukraine conflict and Europe will emerge as a key player in regional strategic stability. The United States and its NATO allies must consistently signal openness to arms control while enhancing deterrence to manage competition in an increasingly uncertain security environment.

This report is made possible by generous support from the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. 

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Authors

The views expressed above are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Strategic and International Studies or the Project on Nuclear Issues.

- Director

Heather Williams is the Director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI).

- Research Associate, CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues

Lachlan MacKenzie is a research associate with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for the Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Previously, Lachlan worked as an intern with the Institute for the Study of War and the Institute for National Strategic Studies. He graduated from Brown University with a BA in international relations.

- Program Coordinator and Research Assistant, Project on Nuclear Issues, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Catherine Murphy is a program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She was previously a research intern with PONI. Prior to CSIS, Catherine was a legislative intern in the U.S. House of Representatives for Congressman Eric Swalwell and a data analytics intern at Redica Systems. Catherine holds a BA in government and international relations from Claremont McKenna College with a focus on U.S. national security and nuclear policy.

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Heather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine Murphy, "Game On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms Control," Nuclear Network, Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 23, 2025, last modified April 23, 2025, https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/game-on-opportunities-for-euro-atlantic-strategic-stability-and-arms-control/.

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