Analysis / CommentaryPitting Nuclear Modernization Against Powering AI: Trump’s Plans for the U.S. Plutonium StockpileByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 14, 2025The Trump administration plans to redirect plutonium from the national stockpile to civilian nuclear energy projects, including to power AI data centers. How will this plan impact U.S. nuclear modernization plans and national security?
Analysis / CommentaryCould the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Be the First Step Toward a NATO-Style Alliance?ByDoreen Horschig, Diya Ashtakala and Bailey SchiffPublished Oct 6, 2025The pact reshaped regional dynamics by deepening Pakistani-Saudi ties, straining India’s balancing act, and raising questions about Israel’s air access. Despite its NATO-style language, it lacks the nuclear and political basis for true collective defense.
Analysis / CommentaryParading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the ShadowsByHeather Williams and Joseph RodgersPublished Sep 8, 2025China’s Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / CommentaryDamage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuilt?ByJoseph Rodgers, Heather Williams and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.Published Aug 6, 2025U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear ProgramByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer may mark the ceiling that conventional force can achieve against Iran’s nuclear program without triggering fallout. For Israel, this means future operations will likely involve sites that are more fortified or environmentally risky, or both.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear AmbitionsByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer struck Iran’s key nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using B-2s and Tomahawk cruise missiles. This effort aimed to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, but its success is still to be determined.
Analysis / CommentaryIran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation RegimeByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 20, 2025Rising tensions with Iran expose a volatile shift in the nonproliferation regime. As the regime’s normative power wanes, proliferation risks will rise, and military counterproliferation efforts will be more likely.
Analysis / CommentaryOptions for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear FacilityByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 20, 2025There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of ThemByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 18, 2025Further strikes on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent, but their success is just one factor that will shape Iran’s nuclear future—along with possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and support from Russia and China.