Analysis / ReportAlternative Nuclear Futures: Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear DeterrenceByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Joseph Rodgers and Reja YounisPublished May 9, 2023The U.S. extended deterrence could change drastically in the next decade due to increasing nuclear threats from countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The credibility of U.S. security guarantees for its allies is at risk, and the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues used an “alternative futures” approach to explore how this mission might be affected. In all scenarios explored, the United States faces a credibility problem that will require a new approach to consulting, planning, training, and operating with allies.
Analysis / ReportIrreversibility in Nuclear DisarmamentByHeather Williams, Jess Link and Joseph RodgersPublished Feb 28, 2023The Project on Nuclear Issues commissioned a series of think pieces to explore potential approaches and challenges to IND.
Analysis Arms Control after Ukraine: Integrated Arms Control and Deterring Two Peer CompetitorsByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Dec 16, 2022This paper will first examine ways that the war in Ukraine may impact prospects for arms control, then pose first-order questions about future U.S. arms control policy.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityCyber-Nuclear Nexus: How Uncertainty Threatens DeterrenceByEva Nour RepussardPublished May 10, 2023The cyber-nuclear nexus—or, simply put, cyberattacks on nuclear weapons and their delivery systems—poses a threat to second strike certainty.
Analysis / CommentaryFuture Steps for U.S.-ROK Extended Deterrence ConsultationsByKelsey HartiganPublished Mar 8, 2023Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travelled to South Korea last week to shore up U.S. extended deterrence commitments following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s comments about South Korea possibly developing its own nuclear weapons.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon Vol. 5: A Collection of Papers from the Next GenerationByReja Younis and Jess LinkPublished Feb 28, 2023The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2022 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. Series On The Horizon
Analysis / CommentaryRussia Suspends New START and Increases Nuclear RisksByHeather WilliamsPublished Feb 23, 2023The suspension of New START further contributes to the demise of arms control, and it also eliminates one of the few remaining forums for dialogue between Moscow and Washington at a time of rising nuclear risks.
Analysis Automating the OODA Loop in the Age of AIByJames JohnsonPublished Jul 25, 2022Because of the confluence of several cognitive, geopolitical, and organizational factors, the line between machines analyzing and synthesizing (i.e., prediction) data that informs humans who make decisions (i.e., judgment) will become an increasingly blurred human-machine decision-making continuum.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityPart 2: How to Target Cancer and Security with Safe and Secure Radiation TechnologiesByPallabi Mitra, C. Norman Coleman and Manjit DosanjhPublished Jul 21, 2022Security and health have often been considered separate disciplines, but the rise in global terrorism has created an unintended intersection between both areas. Progress is being made by the international community in raising awareness of non-source-based technology options such as LINACs but there is more to be done in making non-source based technologies available to “cancer patients in LMICs and other geographically underserved regions.”
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityBrazil Moves Closer to Developing a Nuclear-Powered SubmarineByLuis RodriguezPublished Jul 13, 2022 On June 6 of this year, the Brazilian government and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) started negotiations to allow the country to use nuclear fuel in its slow-burning submarine program. With this announcement, the administration of the Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is taking steps to fulfill a long-standing attempt to develop a Brazilian nuclear-powered submarine.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityPart 1: How to Target Cancer and Security with Safe and Secure Radiation TechnologiesByPallabi MitraPublished May 24, 2022Part 1: Exploring a radiation therapy modality and the multifaceted challenges of source-based and non-source-based radiation technologies.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityLatin America Has Offered a Response to Nuclear Uncertainty since 55 Years AgoByLuis RodriguezPublished May 17, 2022This year marks the 55th anniversary of the treaty institutionalizing the first nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) in a densely populated area. The Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean, commonly known as the Treaty of Tlatelolco, opened for signatures on February 14, 1967. It entered into force on April 22,…