Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.
Analysis / CommentaryIran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation RegimeByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 20, 2025Rising tensions with Iran expose a volatile shift in the nonproliferation regime. As the regime’s normative power wanes, proliferation risks will rise, and military counterproliferation efforts will be more likely.
Analysis / CommentaryOptions for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear FacilityByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 20, 2025There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of ThemByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 18, 2025Further strikes on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent, but their success is just one factor that will shape Iran’s nuclear future—along with possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and support from Russia and China.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Do the Israeli Strikes Mean for Iran’s Nuclear Program?ByHeather Williams, Doreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 18, 2025Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. The future of Iran’s program and regional proliferation risks will depend on the success of Israel’s campaign, the international response, and Tehran’s perceived need for nuclear weapons.
Analysis / CommentaryUkraine’s Drone Swarms Are Destroying Russian Nuclear Bombers. What Happens Now?ByMasao Dahlgren and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jun 10, 2025Ukrainian drones have left Russian nuclear-capable bombers in flames. Will Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack, conducted thousands of miles inside Russian territory, change Russia’s nuclear posture? Could the same happen in the United States?
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAI at the Nexus of Nuclear Deterrence: Enhancing Left of Launch OperationsBySalman AsgharPublished May 23, 2025Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance “left of launch” operations—preemptive strategies aimed at neutralizing missile threats before launch—by improving real-time data analysis, threat detection, and decision-making. While AI offers strategic advantages in missile defense and deterrence, it also introduces significant risks related to miscalculation and escalation, necessitating a cautious and balanced integration into nuclear strategies.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Led to the Recent Crisis Between India and Pakistan?ByDiya AshtakalaPublished May 22, 2025On May 7, 2025, India launched missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir. India stated that the strikes targeted terrorist infrastructure, while Pakistan rejected India’s claims. The strikes took place after two weeks of flare-ups between India and Pakistan following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, a town in India-administered Kashmir. Both countries adopted diplomatic and military measures in response…
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityKeep it Secret, Keep it SafeByBerkley PelletierPublished May 21, 2025The past three decades have revealed troubling gaps in the safekeeping of U.S. nuclear secrets. While U.S. adversaries like China stand to gain from these lapses, the real threat comes from within.
Analysis / CommentaryWe Need More Off-Ramps for Nuclear CrisesByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025States should develop off-ramps—such as crisis communications, third-party mediation, and narrative manipulation—now and in advance of crises in order to reduce the risk of nuclear use.
Analysis / CommentaryRussian Inconsistency on Arms Control Is an Opportunity for EuropeByHeather WilliamsPublished May 12, 2025While Russia has been inconsistent in its messaging about arms control, Moscow has remained consistent in insisting that European nuclear powers be part of any future agreement—both messages present challenges, but also opportunities for the future of arms control.