Analysis / ReportInfluence and Escalation: Implications of Russian and Chinese Influence Operations for Crisis ManagementByRebecca Hersman, Eric Brewer, Maxwell Simon and Lindsey SheppardPublished Nov 17, 2021As influence operations increasingly engage strategic-level interests, capabilities, and risks—U.S. infrastructure, institutions, elites, or those of our close allies—existing assumptions about their escalatory potential may not prove sound.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityNon-Linear, Unpredictable, and Dangerous Crisis-Escalation in South AsiaBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Jan 7, 2022The advent of disruptive technologies and increasing potency of the information landscape is likely to alter the hierarchy of escalation and add to the complexity of the strategic milieu in South Asia.
Analysis / External PublicationA Redline for Iran?ByEric BrewerPublished Dec 23, 2021Eric Brewer and Nicholas L. Miller explore Biden’s potential red lines when it comes to the expansion of the Iranian nuclear program.
Analysis / External PublicationGetting to ‘No’ with IranByEric BrewerPublished Dec 1, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer and Henry Rome on the “Plan B” options if the Iran Deal does not succeed.
Analysis / External PublicationA Nuclear Iran is Not InevitableByEric BrewerPublished Nov 24, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer explains why it is not foretold that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapon.
Analysis / ReportThe Adversary Gets a VoteByRebecca Hersman and Reja YounisPublished Oct 29, 2021As the Department of Defense (DoD) further develops integrated deterrence as its overarching strategic concept, it will become increasingly important to appreciate the stability risks and benefits associated with emerging intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, from both an arms-race and crisis-management perspective.
Analysis / ReportIran’s Evolving Nuclear Program and Implications for U.S. PolicyByEric BrewerPublished Oct 15, 2021Iran’s nuclear program isn’t what it used to be. Read why that matters for efforts to salvage the JCPOA and any “Plan B” from Deputy Director Eric Brewer.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRussia’s New Nuclear Weapons: Responding To The ProblemByAkshai VikramPublished Sep 27, 2021While terrifying in their own right, the Russian hypersonic systems discussed here only underscore the threat of nuclear conflict – a threat that has existed for decades. They exacerbate existing dangers, sometimes in intriguing ways, but do not fundamentally reshape the seemingly always perilous U.S.-Russian strategic relationship.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRussia’s New Nuclear Weapons: Understanding Avangard, Kinzhal, and TsirkonByAkshai VikramPublished Aug 2, 2021The primary driver of Russia’s hypersonic build-up seems to be missile defense. President Putin said the development of these weapons was directly caused by the U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityLessons from a Real-Life Insider: The Case of Leonid SmirnoByNoelle CampPublished Jun 30, 2021In the Smirnov case, the irretrievable loss limit for the facility was set unusually high at 3% of the facility’s nuclear material. In total, Smirnov siphoned off 1.5 kg of HEU, representing only 1% of the facility’s material.
Analysis / External PublicationDoes Iran Actually Want to Rejoin the Nuclear Deal?ByEric BrewerPublished Jun 29, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer and Henry Rome write about Iran’s motivations regarding the Iran nuclear deal.