Analysis / ReportAlternative Nuclear Futures: Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear DeterrenceByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Joseph Rodgers and Reja YounisPublished May 9, 2023The U.S. extended deterrence could change drastically in the next decade due to increasing nuclear threats from countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The credibility of U.S. security guarantees for its allies is at risk, and the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues used an “alternative futures” approach to explore how this mission might be affected. In all scenarios explored, the United States faces a credibility problem that will require a new approach to consulting, planning, training, and operating with allies.
Analysis / ReportIrreversibility in Nuclear DisarmamentByHeather Williams, Jess Link and Joseph RodgersPublished Feb 28, 2023The Project on Nuclear Issues commissioned a series of think pieces to explore potential approaches and challenges to IND.
Analysis Arms Control after Ukraine: Integrated Arms Control and Deterring Two Peer CompetitorsByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Dec 16, 2022This paper will first examine ways that the war in Ukraine may impact prospects for arms control, then pose first-order questions about future U.S. arms control policy.
Analysis / CommentaryHow to Get Away with a Nuclear TestByHeather WilliamsPublished Nov 17, 2023If Russia does return to nuclear testing, Putin will have assumed that the international community will be silent or divided on the issue—essentially, he would be betting that Russia can get away with it. But a return to nuclear testing, a well-recognized taboo, could backfire for Moscow.
Analysis / CommentaryConventional-Nuclear Integration to Strengthen DeterrenceByDoreen Horschig and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Nov 17, 2023The United States and its allies should be prepared to fight a conventional war under the nuclear shadow.
Analysis Project Atom 2023ByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie, Robert Soofer, Tom Karako, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Franklin Miller, Leonor Tomero and Jon WolfsthalPublished Nov 17, 2023A Competitive Strategies Approach for U.S. Nuclear Posture through 2035
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityCountering Competitive Risk Compensation: Principles for Reducing Nuclear Risk on NetByMatthew GentzelPublished Nov 13, 2023In the context of strategic competition, efforts and interventions to reduce the risk of destructive nuclear or conventional conflict can change the incentives of leaders and institutions in ways that undermine risk reduction. As risk reduction is not the only objective that leaders may pursue, direct reductions in risk can accordingly embolden more aggressive behavior…
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen Community“Oppenheimer” – An Exploration of Nuclear Legacy and Its OmissionsByCarla MontillaPublished Oct 4, 2023“Oppenheimer,” directed by Christopher Nolan, couldn’t have arrived at a timelier moment. Against the backdrop of increased Russian nuclear threats, the film delves deep into the complexities of nuclear weapons and their profound impact on global affairs. The movie based on the story of J. Robert Oppenheimer depicts the moral and strategic debates created by…
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityAUKUS’ Crumbling Public Perceptions ByJasmin AlsaiedPublished Aug 2, 2023There has been progress and criticism surrounding the Australia-United Kingdom-United States Partnership (AUKUS), which aims to provide Australia with nuclear-propelled submarines. Critics, including the nuclear nonproliferation community and China, fear that the deal could lead to nuclear material proliferation. However, proponents argue that AUKUS strengthens the global non-proliferation regime by clarifying the naval nuclear propulsion loophole and setting a precedent for responsible nuclear stewardship.
Analysis / ReportReactions from the Next Generation: “The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the New Nuclear Age”ByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Suzanne Claeys, Joseph Rodgers, Lachlan Mackenzie and Jess LinkPublished Jul 12, 2023As a follow-on to The Fragile Balance of Terror, the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies invited eight early- and mid-career experts to offer their reflections on the volume’s chapters and conclusions.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityCyber-Nuclear Nexus: How Uncertainty Threatens DeterrenceByEva Nour RepussardPublished May 10, 2023The cyber-nuclear nexus—or, simply put, cyberattacks on nuclear weapons and their delivery systems—poses a threat to second strike certainty.
Analysis / CommentaryFuture Steps for U.S.-ROK Extended Deterrence ConsultationsByKelsey HartiganPublished Mar 8, 2023Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travelled to South Korea last week to shore up U.S. extended deterrence commitments following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s comments about South Korea possibly developing its own nuclear weapons.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon Vol. 5: A Collection of Papers from the Next GenerationByReja Younis and Jess LinkPublished Feb 28, 2023The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2022 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. Series On The Horizon