Analysis / ReportStrategic Trends 2025ByNicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan Mackenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams and Reja YounisPublished Nov 18, 2025In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.
Analysis  Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Nov 5, 2025President Putin’s instruction for Russian military and political leaders to begin “preparations for nuclear weapons tests” follows President Trump’s similar order last week, but also fits a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Analysis  Can the United States Immediately Return to Nuclear Testing?ByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 30, 2025President Trump’s post raises technical questions about how and if the United States could “immediately” return to nuclear testing, and political considerations about the signaling behind nuclear testing and who would benefit most from a return to testing.
Analysis / CommentaryPitting Nuclear Modernization Against Powering AI: Trump’s Plans for the U.S. Plutonium StockpileByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 14, 2025The Trump administration plans to redirect plutonium from the national stockpile to civilian nuclear energy projects, including to power AI data centers. How will this plan impact U.S. nuclear modernization plans and national security?
Analysis Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear RiskByHeather Williams, Joseph Rodgers and Elizabeth KosPublished Sep 16, 2025The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.
Analysis / CommentaryParading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the ShadowsByHeather Williams and Joseph RodgersPublished Sep 8, 2025China’s Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / CommentaryDamage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuilt?ByJoseph Rodgers, Heather Williams and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.Published Aug 6, 2025U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.
Analysis / CommentaryOptions for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear FacilityByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 20, 2025There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of ThemByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 18, 2025Further strikes on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent, but their success is just one factor that will shape Iran’s nuclear future—along with possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and support from Russia and China.