Analysis / CommentaryWhy Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine NowByHeather WilliamsPublished Sep 27, 2024Putin’s changes Russia’s nuclear doctrine show increased reliance on nuclear weapons for coercion in the Ukraine War. By expanding nuclear use conditions, Russia aims to deter Western aid and divide European allies, signaling a greater willingness to escalate.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Did China and Russia Stage a Joint Bomber Exercise near Alaska?ByHeather Williams, Kari A. Bingen and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jul 31, 2024On July 24, the North American Aerospace Defense Command intercepted two Chinese and two Russian bombers flying near Alaska. This incident was the first of its kind and could signal a growing willingness on the part of Beijing and Moscow to test American resolve.
Analysis / CommentaryDebating Global South Reactions to Russian Nuclear ThreatsByHeather Williams and J. Luis RodriguezPublished Jul 31, 2024Russia is responsible for its nuclear saber-rattling, not the countries in the Global South. Global South countries have condemned nuclear saber-rattling publicly in regional and international forums, even if some of them have not called out Russia explicitly.
Analysis / ReportHouse of Cards? Nuclear Norms in an Era of Strategic CompetitionByHeather Williams and Doreen HorschigPublished Jul 31, 2024While the norms against nuclear proliferation, use, and testing are widely supported and critical for stability, they are increasingly contested. The fragile interconnectedness of the norms urges global action to reinforce these pillars and prevent a destabilizing cascade.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear SaberByHeather WilliamsPublished Jul 31, 2024On May 6, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that its navy, air force, and ground missile forces would conduct tactical nuclear drills in the Southern Military District. These risky behaviors have drawn little-to-no response from the wider international community.
Analysis / ReportCSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByHeather WilliamsPublished May 14, 2024The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), have convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) since 2009 to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues.
Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryChina’s Waterlogged Missiles Don’t MatterByHeather WilliamsPublished Jan 29, 2024While recent reports of widespread corruption in China’s Strategic Rocket Force have rightly raised questions about the reliability of their nuclear forces, U.S. policymakers should not stray from current strategic plans and efforts to advance risk reduction with Beijing.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.
Analysis / CommentaryHow to Get Away with a Nuclear TestByHeather WilliamsPublished Nov 17, 2023If Russia does return to nuclear testing, Putin will have assumed that the international community will be silent or divided on the issue—essentially, he would be betting that Russia can get away with it. But a return to nuclear testing, a well-recognized taboo, could backfire for Moscow.