Analysis / 

Strategic Trends 2025

In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.

Published
November 18, 2025
By
, , , , , , , , and
FacebookXLinkedInEmailCopy Link
Photo: Skórzewiak/Adobe Stock
DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT

Strategic Trends 2025 examines how the global nuclear landscape has shifted in ways that challenge the United States and its allies and partners. After decades of declining strategic competition, Washington now faces multiple nuclear-armed adversaries whose capabilities and ambitions are rapidly evolving. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s nuclear expansion, and North Korea’s growing arsenal have intensified the complexity of deterrence. Meanwhile, emerging technologies may increasingly blur the line between nuclear and conventional conflict, creating faster escalation dynamics and raising the risk of miscalculation.

The report highlights three critical trends shaping 2025 and looking into 2026: adversarial cooperation, the erosion of nuclear institutions and norms, and delays in U.S. nuclear modernization. Policymakers must navigate a fractured strategic order while reassuring allies of U.S. extended deterrence. Arms control mechanisms, once a stabilizing force, no longer provide predictability, and proliferation pressures grow in regions such as South Asia and the Middle East. By analyzing regional developments, nuclear doctrines, and emerging strategic technologies, this volume offers a comprehensive guide for understanding the current nuclear threat environment and preparing for the challenges ahead.

This report is made possible by general support to PONI. No direct sponsorship contributed to this report.

FacebookXLinkedInEmailCopy Link

Authors

The views expressed above are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Center for Strategic and International Studies or the Project on Nuclear Issues.

- Research Associate, CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues

Diya Ashtakala is a research associate for the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).

- Associate Fellow, Project on Nuclear Issues

Doreen Horschig is an associate fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for the Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She is also a non-resident research associate at the School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida (UCF). Previously, Doreen was a nuclear security policy fellow at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Stanton nuclear security fellow at MIT. Her research is twofold and examines nuclear norms contestation and counterproliferation. Doreen holds a PhD in security studies from UCF, a MA in international relations from New York University, and a BA in international studies from Manhattan College.

- Research Associate, CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues

Lachlan MacKenzie is a research associate with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for the Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Previously, Lachlan worked as an intern with the Institute for the Study of War and the Institute for National Strategic Studies. He graduated from Brown University with a BA in international relations.

- Program Coordinator and Research Assistant, Project on Nuclear Issues, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Catherine Murphy is a program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). She was previously a research intern with PONI. Prior to CSIS, Catherine was a legislative intern in the U.S. House of Representatives for Congressman Eric Swalwell and a data analytics intern at Redica Systems. Catherine holds a BA in government and international relations from Claremont McKenna College with a focus on U.S. national security and nuclear policy.

- Deputy Director and Fellow

Joseph Rodgers is deputy director and fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the International Security Program.

- Program Coordinator and Research Assistant, Project on Nuclear Issues, CSIS

Bailey Schiff is a program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Prior to joining CSIS, Bailey was a political intern in the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs and a legislative intern in the Senate with a Foreign Policy, National Security, and Defense portfolio. She is a student at American University School of International Service (SIS), focusing on national security and the Middle East. Bailey is proficient in French and Arabic.

- Senior Associate (Non-resident), Project on Nuclear Issues

Pranay Vaddi is a senior associate (non-resident) with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

- Director

Heather Williams is the Director of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI).

Reja Younis is the program manager and a research associate with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the International Security Program at CSIS. Prior to working at CSIS, she completed a year-long fellowship with The Stimson Center, where she conducted research on nuclear deterrence challenges, crisis dynamics, and great power competition in the context of South Asia. She has also worked as a research analyst for the Chicago Project on Political Violence and has served as an editorial writer and subeditor of the Opinion and Editorial section for the Tribune newspaper. She holds a bachelor’s degree in social sciences and liberal arts from the Institute of Business Administration Karachi and a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Chicago.

Write for us

Become a guest author with PONI to have your analysis published on our site.

Submit your idea!

Cite this Page

Nicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan Mackenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams and Reja Younis, "Strategic Trends 2025," Nuclear Network, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 18, 2025, last modified December 3, 2025, https://nuclearnetwork.csis.org/strategic-trends-2025/.

Related

Topics

Keywords