Analysis / Next Gen CommunityKeep it Secret, Keep it SafeByBerkley PelletierPublished May 21, 2025The past three decades have revealed troubling gaps in the safekeeping of U.S. nuclear secrets. While U.S. adversaries like China stand to gain from these lapses, the real threat comes from within.
Analysis / CommentaryRussian Inconsistency on Arms Control Is an Opportunity for EuropeByHeather WilliamsPublished May 12, 2025While Russia has been inconsistent in its messaging about arms control, Moscow has remained consistent in insisting that European nuclear powers be part of any future agreement—both messages present challenges, but also opportunities for the future of arms control.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAmerica First, Allies, and Adversaries: Balancing Arms Control and Nonproliferation ByLachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished May 1, 2025President Trump appears willing to make significant concessions on regional security issues—potentially including support for key partners—to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Three areas of U.S. policy will influence whether this approach raises the risks of allied proliferation: the administration’s approach to nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and security concessions.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDespite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran LoomsBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Apr 24, 2025While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHow a Second Trump Term Could Shape U.S. Nuclear Posture in Europe and the Indo-Pacific ByMariam KvaratskheliaPublished Apr 10, 2025The early days of Trump’s second term have been marked by statements signaling a departure from his first-term nuclear doctrine—but geopolitical realities in two key theaters and potential congressional pushback are likely to limit the extent of that pivot.
Analysis / CommentaryUpdating Nuclear Command, Control, and CommunicationByHeather WilliamsPublished Jan 3, 2025Nuclear command and control will be an essential piece of nuclear modernization plans. To confront two-peer competition, the United States should stay apace with modernization plans and will require constant innovation.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon Vol. 7ByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 3, 2025The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2024 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates across deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation communities. Series On The Horizon
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityA Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space ByLuke WidenhousePublished Sep 30, 2024In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe GIUK Gap: A New Age of A2/AD in Contested Strategic Maritime Spaces ByShane WardPublished Sep 12, 2024The global strategic environment is ripe for technology-driven great power competition once more. Russia’s war in Ukraine and pursuit of novel nuclear weapon delivery vehicles, coupled with China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and capabilities, mean the United States must assess its capabilities and posture in more theaters simultaneously than ever before. Among them, contested maritime spaces…
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityPart 2: Challenges and Solutions for Combating Nuclear Mis- and Disinformation ByBrian CookPublished Sep 6, 2024There is no catchall solution for completely stopping mis- and disinformation. It might be impossible to untangle the technology, psychology, and politics and social issues that all contribute to the spread and believability of false information. This is true for nuclear mis- and disinformation as well. But recognizing the challenges and thinking about possible solutions is an important start, especially for such an impactful and increasingly salient topic like nuclear weapons.