Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe ceaseless return of the Eurodeterrent debate: Focusing on the right questionByLinde DesmaelePublished May 1, 2024While the concept of a European nuclear deterrent is by most deemed ill-advised, it also stems from a deeper unease: How to navigate a world where Russia appears increasingly aggressive and the United States more unpredictable. Rather than hastily pursuing nuclear alternatives, European leaders must define their Russia problem first.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Israel-Hamas Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Security in the RegionByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 11, 2024The Israel-Hamas conflict strains Israel-Iran ties, impacting regional nuclear dynamics. It may strengthen Israel’s resolve to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, prompt Iran’s nuclear acceleration, and hinder U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
Analysis  Arms Control after Ukraine: Integrated Arms Control and Deterring Two Peer CompetitorsByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Dec 16, 2022This paper will first examine ways that the war in Ukraine may impact prospects for arms control, then pose first-order questions about future U.S. arms control policy.
Analysis / ReportCSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByRebecca HersmanPublished Apr 1, 2022Consensus statement from Track 2 participants from the CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues with the US, UK, and France.
Analysis / ReportIntegrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic CompetitionByRebecca Hersman, Suzanne Claeys and Heather WilliamsPublished Jan 25, 2022Can contemporary arms control keep pace with the rapid rate of change in both geopolitics and technology? This study examines the implication and prospects for the future of arms control in a highly competitive security environment in which challenges from advanced technologies and diminished state control over processes of verification become increasingly prominent features, even as the scope and modalities of arms control grow more complex and multifaceted.
Analysis / CommentaryReading the Nuclear Tea Leaves: Policy and Posture in the Biden AdministrationByRebecca Hersman and Joseph RodgersPublished Jun 14, 2021The nuclear policy community is once again in the grips of pervasive anxiety that U.S. nuclear policy—encompassing force modernization decisions, declaratory policy, and perceptions of adversary nuclear threat and risk—is either about to dramatically change or fail to change as dramatically as it should. In a polarized community characterized by mistrust and a highly politicized…
Analysis / CommentaryWhen is More Actually Less? Situational Awareness and Nuclear RisksByRebecca Hersman and Bernadette StadlerPublished Aug 2, 2019As increasingly capable and provocative situational awareness tools come into play, the very act of improving situational awareness may intensify escalation cycles in unanticipated ways, particularly among nuclear-armed states.
Analysis / CommentaryIran’s Latest Nuclear Provocation: What it Means, What Comes Next.ByEric BrewerPublished Jul 1, 2019Iran announced Monday—and international inspectors confirmed—that it had exceeded the amount of enriched uranium it can have on hand under the terms of the nuclear deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA). The deal allows Iran to have up to 300kg of up to 3.67 percent enriched uranium hexafluoride.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityCounterproliferation Strategy & the Proliferation Security InitiativeByCameron TrainerPublished May 7, 2019If the United States is to consider a more aggressive counterproliferation strategy, it must occur beyond the context of the Proliferation Security Initiative.