Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDespite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran LoomsBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Apr 24, 2025While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHow a Second Trump Term Could Shape U.S. Nuclear Posture in Europe and the Indo-Pacific ByMariam KvaratskheliaPublished Apr 10, 2025The early days of Trump’s second term have been marked by statements signaling a departure from his first-term nuclear doctrine—but geopolitical realities in two key theaters and potential congressional pushback are likely to limit the extent of that pivot.
Analysis / CommentaryCSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByHeather WilliamsPublished Apr 9, 2025Political shifts and a rapidly changing security environment continue to reinforce the importance of close collaboration and unity between the United States, the United Kingdom, and France as responsible nuclear weapons states and NATO alliance members.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Does the United States Need a More Flexible Nuclear Force?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Apr 9, 2025Deterrence is emerging as a theme for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, but questions remain about the Trump administration’s ability to deliver and maintain the nation’s nuclear deterrent.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Factors Drive U.S.-Israeli Differences on Iran’s Nuclear Challenge?ByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Apr 9, 2025U.S.-Israeli differences over the Iranian nuclear challenge are growing. With Washington signaling interests in diplomacy and Israel advocating for military action, their diverging strategies could affect strategic alignment and coordination.
Analysis / CommentaryCan France and the United Kingdom Replace the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella?ByDoreen Horschig and Astrid ChevreuilPublished Mar 13, 2025As doubts grow over U.S. nuclear commitments, Germany’s new chancellor has sparked debate on whether France and the United Kingdom could provide a European nuclear umbrella. But with strategic and doctrinal hurdles ahead, is Europe ready to reshape its nuclear deterrence?
Analysis / MultimediaThe Negotiator Files: A Conversation with Franklin MillerByCSIS PONIPublished Feb 26, 2025This interview is a part of CSIS PONI’s Arms Control Knowledge Transfer Initiative (ACKTI), a program designed to preserve knowledge through senior expert interviews and primary source archival research, to educate the next generation of arms control experts on all aspects of arms control, including negotiation, implementation, inspection, and more. Series The Negotiator Files
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) as India’s Bid for Conventional DeterrenceByMandar RansingPublished Feb 25, 2025Since its inception, nuclear deterrence has been viewed as the ultimate deterrence. Concepts like MAD ensured nuclear peace for many decades, but with the growing geopolitical tensions and conflicts involving nuclear states, the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is being undermined. For India, it is concerning as it shares contested borders with two nuclear nations. Issues like nuclear doctrine and conventional asymmetry necessitate India strengthening its conventional deterrence. The Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) is a right step but needs clarity in the Command and Control (C2) structure. IRF in the future can expand its operations provided it gets sufficient firepower.
Analysis / CommentaryU.S. Sanctions on Pakistan’s Missile Program Highlight Nuclear Threats from South AsiaByDiya AshtakalaPublished Jan 29, 2025On December 19, 2024, the United States imposed sanctions on Pakistani entities over concerns about the development of a long-range missile capable of targeting the United States. Termed an “emerging threat,” the move underscores growing nuclear risks beyond South Asia.
Analysis / MultimediaThe Negotiator Files: A Conversation with Elaine BunnByCSIS PONIPublished Jan 28, 2025This interview is a part of CSIS PONI’s Arms Control Knowledge Transfer Initiative (ACKTI), a program designed to preserve knowledge through senior expert interviews and primary source archival research, to educate the next generation of arms control experts on all aspects of arms control, including negotiation, implementation, inspection, and more. Series The Negotiator Files