Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon, Vol. 8ByDoreen Horschig, Alvina Ahmed, Hrishita Badu, Mar Casas Cachinero, Andrew Fishberg, Artur Honich, Shaquille James, Eliana Johns, Frank Kuhn, Sam Lair, Colin Levaunt, Ayazhan Muratbek, Yashar Parsie, William J. Peck, Ariel Phuphaphantakarn, Phillip G. Rombach, Shawn Rostker, Olivia Salembier, Jaclyn Schmitt, Clara Sherwood and Sarah StevensonPublished Jan 8, 2026A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation Series On The Horizon
Analysis / CommentaryGolden Dome for America: Assessing Chinese and Russian ReactionsByRaymond Wang and Lachlan MackenziePublished Nov 20, 2025This article surveys Chinese and Russian reactions to Golden Dome and develops an initial assessment of its potential impact on arms racing and strategic stability.
Analysis / ReportStrategic Trends 2025ByNicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan Mackenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams and Reja YounisPublished Nov 18, 2025In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.
Analysis Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Nov 5, 2025President Putin’s instruction for Russian military and political leaders to begin “preparations for nuclear weapons tests” follows President Trump’s similar order last week, but also fits a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Analysis Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear RiskByHeather Williams, Joseph Rodgers and Elizabeth KosPublished Sep 16, 2025The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityIs the Hunt Back On? Attacks on Strategic Forces Illustrate China’s Nuclear Survivability ConcernsByJupiter HuangPublished Aug 15, 2025Operation Rising Lion combined intelligence, asymmetric operations, and conventional forces to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israeli actions. When coupled with Ukraine’s attacks against Russian strategic bombers, mobile nuclear forces must now be resilient to a rapidly changing threat environment. This is most prevalent in the case of China. By focusing on building siloed ICBMs, China’s near-term nuclear forces remain much more vulnerable to disarming strikes than the numerical U.S.-China nuclear balance suggests. Beijing’s nuclear modernization has qualitative shortfalls that the U.S. must incorporate into force planning and arms control considerations.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAverting ‘Day Zero’: Preventing a Space Arms RaceByLauren ChoPublished Aug 6, 2025In response to emerging threats like Russia’s suspected development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, international attention has turned to the broader implications such systems may have for military stability, diplomatic relations, as well as legal frameworks governing space. Recent efforts reflect a growing push to reinforce norms through coordinated diplomatic engagement and renewed commitments to space security.
Analysis / CommentaryUkraine’s Drone Swarms Are Destroying Russian Nuclear Bombers. What Happens Now?ByMasao Dahlgren and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jun 10, 2025Ukrainian drones have left Russian nuclear-capable bombers in flames. Will Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack, conducted thousands of miles inside Russian territory, change Russia’s nuclear posture? Could the same happen in the United States?
Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.