Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDespite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran LoomsBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Apr 24, 2025While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon Vol. 7ByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 3, 2025The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2024 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates across deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation communities. Series On The Horizon
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityA Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space ByLuke WidenhousePublished Sep 30, 2024In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityBrazil Moves Closer to Developing a Nuclear-Powered SubmarineByLuis RodriguezPublished Jul 13, 2022 On June 6 of this year, the Brazilian government and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) started negotiations to allow the country to use nuclear fuel in its slow-burning submarine program. With this announcement, the administration of the Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro is taking steps to fulfill a long-standing attempt to develop a Brazilian nuclear-powered submarine.
Analysis / External PublicationA Redline for Iran?ByEric BrewerPublished Dec 23, 2021Eric Brewer and Nicholas L. Miller explore Biden’s potential red lines when it comes to the expansion of the Iranian nuclear program.
Analysis / External PublicationGetting to ‘No’ with IranByEric BrewerPublished Dec 1, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer and Henry Rome on the “Plan B” options if the Iran Deal does not succeed.
Analysis / ReportIran’s Evolving Nuclear Program and Implications for U.S. PolicyByEric BrewerPublished Oct 15, 2021Iran’s nuclear program isn’t what it used to be. Read why that matters for efforts to salvage the JCPOA and any “Plan B” from Deputy Director Eric Brewer.
Analysis / External PublicationDoes Iran Actually Want to Rejoin the Nuclear Deal?ByEric BrewerPublished Jun 29, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer and Henry Rome write about Iran’s motivations regarding the Iran nuclear deal.
Analysis / External PublicationThe Nuclear Proliferation Landscape: Is Past Prologue?ByEric BrewerPublished Jun 17, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer writes about the evolution of proliferation threats, reflecting on past and future proliferators to guide U.S. policy.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat’s Next for Iran Nuclear Talks?ByEric BrewerPublished May 19, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer writes about what the next steps are for the Iran nuclear deal.