Analysis / ReportUnderstanding Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-First CenturyByKelsey Hartigan, Reja Younis and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jul 31, 2024The United States faces an increasingly contested strategic environment that raises significant, unanswered questions about the role nuclear weapons will play in U.S. national security strategy going forward, and the forces that will be required to deter—and, if necessary, defeat—adversaries. For the first time in its history, the United States must contend with not one…
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe ceaseless return of the Eurodeterrent debate: Focusing on the right questionByLinde DesmaelePublished May 1, 2024While the concept of a European nuclear deterrent is by most deemed ill-advised, it also stems from a deeper unease: How to navigate a world where Russia appears increasingly aggressive and the United States more unpredictable. Rather than hastily pursuing nuclear alternatives, European leaders must define their Russia problem first.
Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryThinking about the Unthinkable: Five Nuclear Weapons Issues to Address in 2024ByKelsey HartiganPublished Feb 23, 2024The United States needs to address five key nuclear weapons challenges in 2024. Managing these challenges will require leadership and careful attention from the highest levels—a commodity that will no doubt be in short supply in 2024.
Analysis / CommentaryConventional-Nuclear Integration to Strengthen DeterrenceByDoreen Horschig and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Nov 17, 2023The United States and its allies should be prepared to fight a conventional war under the nuclear shadow.
Analysis / CommentaryCSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues: Consensus StatementByRebecca HersmanPublished Feb 22, 2019The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pourla Recherche Stratégique (FRS), has convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past ten years to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues and to identify areas of consensus among the three countries.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityCSIS PONI – UK PONI Bilateral: Grounding Nuclear Issues in RealityByCristina VarrialePublished Oct 24, 2017Day-to-day conversations don’t always stop to take stock of the weapons being discussed. Exchanges and site visits like these ground some of the issues that are easily lost in an array of nuclear narratives.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityBrexit and the Trident Renewal: More Questions than Answers for NATO’s Nuclear DeterrentByJared Dunnmon and CSIS PONIPublished Jul 20, 2016The Trident system is a key operational component of the NATO deterrent architecture, and without an effective infrastructure to support Trident, NATO may find itself in the new, and unenviable position of relative nuclear weakness.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityModerate the alliance outliersByTimothy Stafford and CSIS PONIPublished Jun 4, 2016Both South Korea and Turkey enjoy explicit nuclear guarantees. Yet under the Obama administration, relations with each have lurched to opposite ends of the ‘reassurance spectrum.’ As a result, both feel less secure than they should.
Analysis / CommentaryUnited Kingdom Debates Scrapping Nuclear Program: Why the United States CaresByRebecca HersmanPublished Feb 26, 2016The United Kingdom has maintained a continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent since April 1969, with one ballistic missile submarine on patrol at all times.