Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, U.S. and Iranian interlocutors have reported encouraging progress in ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. While the resumption of diplomacy is a good sign, the strategic milieu is fraught and deeply concerning. Days after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran if nuclear talks with the country failed, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would never accept coercion. He stressed that, to move toward a positive outcome, “we first need to agree that there can be no ‘military option’, let alone a ‘military solution’.” The United States followed this war of words with the imposition of new sanctions on Iran’s nuclear entities. This string of negative developments points to deep-seated tensions and militates against successful negotiations. If anything, U.S. brazenness and Iran’s defiance could not only attenuate the prospect of reaching an agreement but also increase the likelihood of the latter’s nuclearization. This might be the case due to high levels of distrust, Trump’s aggressive posturing, and the evisceration of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Iran Remembers Trump 1.0 The first reason that is likely to dent negotiations is the trust deficit between the two countries. Recently, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi expressed apprehensions about U.S. seriousness in reaching a negotiated settlement. Last month, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also rejected direct negotiations with the U.S., emphasizing that “it is the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far.” Such concerns emanate from Trump’s approach toward Iran during his first tenure. In addition to unilaterally withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Trump displayed a firm commitment to countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East. This was evidenced by U.S. involvement in the killing of Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimani, and the maximum pressure campaign on the country. Iranian hardliners have not forgotten all this, with some even calling to avenge the death of Soleimani. These voices are likely to grow louder as a result of Trump’s resumption of the maximum pressure policy. Taken together, all of this will create further misgivings and contribute to upending these negotiations. Should these fail, the prospect of Iran inching closer to weaponizing its nuclear capabilities will increase. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran is already “dramatically “ accelerating uranium enrichment to near-bomb- grade levels. Led by the all-powerful Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iranian hawks could decide to increase enrichment to 90%, the level required to produce nuclear weapons. A recent nuclear exhibition hosted by Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI), showcasing the country’s nuclear advances, indicates that such thinking might be prevalent among the Iranian officialdom. Washington’s Belligerence is Concerning The second reason that might make Iran’s nuclearization likelier is Trump’s threat of punitive military action against Iran. While announcing the revival of nuclear talks with Tehran, Trump said Israel would lead military strikes on the country if a deal is not struck. Recently, he also denied having waved off an Israeli plan to attack Iran. Trump made these remarks weeks after U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said all military options against Iran were on the table. These statements, coupled with recent U.S. strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and Trump’s letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, demonstrated U.S. willingness to coerce Iran. They sought to warn Iran against ramping up both its support for the Houthis and efforts toward nuclearization. This flurry of threats has been complemented by the redeployment and reinforcement of U.S. military assets in the region. These U.S. advancements might make the North Korean model more appealing to Iran. After leaving the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), North Korea developed an indigenous nuclear capability, forcing the U.S. to negotiate with it. Today, Washington has, by and large, accepted North Korea as a nuclear-armed state. Therefore, Khamenei might believe that possessing nuclear weapons would ensure the survival of his regime. Nuclear Weapons: Iran’s New Strategic Shield? Concomitantly, the most decisive factor that might push Iran to build nuclear weapons is the weakening of its old, dependable Axis of Resistance. Comprising a variety of highly trained and formidable proxy groups, the Axis has been critical to helping offset Iran’s military inferiority vis-à-vis its adversaries in Israel and the U.S. since 1979. The Assad family in Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas were long considered the three planks of the Axis and helped create Iran’s sphere of influence in the Middle East. Since the initiation of the latest episode of violence in Gaza in 2023, these groups have been suffering setback after setback. Whereas Israel has significantly neutralized the operational capabilities and leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah, the pro-Iran Assad regime has been dislodged from power in Syria. This has left the Axis in doldrums, dealing a severe blow to Iran’s indirect strategy of deterring and bleeding its enemies. Although some scholars argue that the Axis is still dangerous, the current situation presents a grave threat to Iran that its weak military is incapable of thwarting. All this, coupled with unremitting bellicosity from both the U.S. and Israel, will push the Iranian leadership to search for an effective deterrent. In her piece for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, prominent Iran-focused scholar Nicole Grajewski argues that the limited effectiveness of Tehran’s forward defense doctrine will compel the country to leverage its nuclear ambiguity. While Iran could extract some benefits from emphasizing its threshold nuclear status, it may not be able to deter direct attacks by Israel or the U.S. To deter their aggression, Iran might decide to move toward nuclear weaponization. In a recent interview, Ali Larijani, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, drew a clear linkage between nuclear weapons and deterring external aggression. He said Iran would be forced to tread the nuclear path because it has to defend itself. This suggests that, facing the prospect of military coercion and bereft of its traditional sources of strategic power, Iran is mulling over the possession of a nuclear weapons capability. Is Iran Sprinting Toward Nuclearization? With the noose tightening around Iran, speculations about the country sprinting toward nuclearization will likely increase. While scholars like Vipin Narang compellingly argue that sprinting may no longer be viable due to increasing risks of preventive attacks, Iran might be forced to adopt this strategy going forward. This is because it cannot afford to capitulate or leave its adversaries undeterred, and nuclear weapons will most likely rule out both eventualities. However, successful negotiations will make it less likely. It is Time to Be Prudent In sum, at a time when Iran is feeling weak and vulnerable in the Middle East, saber-rattling from the U.S. will push it closer to getting a nuclear deterrent of its own. Given that such an eventuality will not only undermine U.S. nonproliferation policy but also open the door to further nuclear proliferation, jingoism must not subvert the current diplomatic effort. While the situation may not be propitious for a breakthrough, the ongoing Oman process provides a window of opportunity to reduce tensions. This is primarily because it has facilitated more technical-level negotiations over enrichment levels and sanctions relief. Already marred by a raging war in Europe and economic uncertainty, the world can ill-afford a nuclear-tinged conflagration in the Middle East. Therefore, the Oman process must not be derailed.