Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / CommentaryDamage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuilt?ByJoseph Rodgers, Heather Williams and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.Published Aug 6, 2025U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDisruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran Nuclear StrikesByBailey SchiffPublished Jul 1, 2025Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer were widely hailed as a marvel of operational success, but the true measure of strategic success hinges on a murkier question: did the strikes merely delay Iran’s nuclear program or dismantle it for good?
Analysis / CommentaryThe Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear ProgramByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer may mark the ceiling that conventional force can achieve against Iran’s nuclear program without triggering fallout. For Israel, this means future operations will likely involve sites that are more fortified or environmentally risky, or both.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear AmbitionsByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer struck Iran’s key nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using B-2s and Tomahawk cruise missiles. This effort aimed to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, but its success is still to be determined.
Analysis / CommentaryIran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation RegimeByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 20, 2025Rising tensions with Iran expose a volatile shift in the nonproliferation regime. As the regime’s normative power wanes, proliferation risks will rise, and military counterproliferation efforts will be more likely.
Analysis / CommentaryOptions for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear FacilityByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 20, 2025There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of ThemByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 18, 2025Further strikes on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent, but their success is just one factor that will shape Iran’s nuclear future—along with possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and support from Russia and China.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Do the Israeli Strikes Mean for Iran’s Nuclear Program?ByHeather Williams, Doreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 18, 2025Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. The future of Iran’s program and regional proliferation risks will depend on the success of Israel’s campaign, the international response, and Tehran’s perceived need for nuclear weapons.
Analysis / CommentaryUkraine’s Drone Swarms Are Destroying Russian Nuclear Bombers. What Happens Now?ByMasao Dahlgren and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jun 10, 2025Ukrainian drones have left Russian nuclear-capable bombers in flames. Will Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack, conducted thousands of miles inside Russian territory, change Russia’s nuclear posture? Could the same happen in the United States?