Analysis / CommentaryWhat Factors Drive U.S.-Israeli Differences on Iran’s Nuclear Challenge?ByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Apr 9, 2025U.S.-Israeli differences over the Iranian nuclear challenge are growing. With Washington signaling interests in diplomacy and Israel advocating for military action, their diverging strategies could affect strategic alignment and coordination.
Analysis / CommentaryCan France and the United Kingdom Replace the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella?ByDoreen Horschig and Astrid ChevreuilPublished Mar 13, 2025As doubts grow over U.S. nuclear commitments, Germany’s new chancellor has sparked debate on whether France and the United Kingdom could provide a European nuclear umbrella. But with strategic and doctrinal hurdles ahead, is Europe ready to reshape its nuclear deterrence?
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) as India’s Bid for Conventional DeterrenceByMandar RansingPublished Feb 25, 2025Since its inception, nuclear deterrence has been viewed as the ultimate deterrence. Concepts like MAD ensured nuclear peace for many decades, but with the growing geopolitical tensions and conflicts involving nuclear states, the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is being undermined. For India, it is concerning as it shares contested borders with two nuclear nations. Issues like nuclear doctrine and conventional asymmetry necessitate India strengthening its conventional deterrence. The Integrated Rocket Force (IRF) is a right step but needs clarity in the Command and Control (C2) structure. IRF in the future can expand its operations provided it gets sufficient firepower.
Analysis / CommentaryU.S. Sanctions on Pakistan’s Missile Program Highlight Nuclear Threats from South AsiaByDiya AshtakalaPublished Jan 29, 2025On December 19, 2024, the United States imposed sanctions on Pakistani entities over concerns about the development of a long-range missile capable of targeting the United States. Termed an “emerging threat,” the move underscores growing nuclear risks beyond South Asia.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHezbollah’s Fall: Implications for Iran’s Nuclear AspirationsByBailey SchiffPublished Nov 8, 2024In ten days, Israel decapitated Hezbollah as an organization, leaving behind only fighters previously deemed not important enough to have a beeper. Beyond a tactical operation, by electing to conduct all three operations in daylight, civilians in Lebanon and Iran were forced to confront Hezbollah’s weakness. Although these operations were transformative, this crippling of Hezbollah will likely send nuclear shockwaves through the region by incentivizing both Tehran’s nuclear weaponization and Israeli targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities. As the region braces for continued conflict between Israel and Iran after the U.S. election, rather than striking nuclear facilities, Israel should target economic centers of gravity, bolster influence operations, and leverage domestic unrest in Iran and Lebanon to destabilize the regime. At the same time, the U.S. should raise the political and economic costs of maintaining a nuclear program. This approach can foster democracy, enhance Mossad intelligence operations, and compel Iran to reallocate military financing, laying the groundwork for lasting peace.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Striking Iranian Nuclear Facilities Is a Bad IdeaByDoreen HorschigPublished Oct 31, 2024Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could escalate tensions and push Tehran further towards nuclear weapons development. Diplomacy, although slow, remains the only viable way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Analysis / CommentarySix Days in October: Russia’s Dirty Bomb Signaling and the Return of Nuclear CrisesByLachlan MackenziePublished Sep 4, 2024In fall 2022, confronted by intensifying Russian nuclear rhetoric and intercepted conversations about nuclear use in the Russian military, the United States faced what may have been its most dangerous nuclear crisis in decades.
Analysis / CommentaryHow Are Cyberattacks Fueling North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions?ByDoreen HorschigPublished Aug 2, 2024After a two-year investigation, Google’s cybersecurity firm Mandiant accused North Korean hacker group Advanced Persistent Threat 45 (APT45, or Andariel) of engaging in a global cyber espionage campaign since 2009. The group attacked a variety of sectors (e.g., banks, defense firms, and hospitals) and targeted nation-states such as India, South Korea, and the United States on the…
Analysis / CommentaryDebating Global South Reactions to Russian Nuclear ThreatsByHeather Williams and J. Luis RodriguezPublished Jul 31, 2024Russia is responsible for its nuclear saber-rattling, not the countries in the Global South. Global South countries have condemned nuclear saber-rattling publicly in regional and international forums, even if some of them have not called out Russia explicitly.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe ceaseless return of the Eurodeterrent debate: Focusing on the right questionByLinde DesmaelePublished May 1, 2024While the concept of a European nuclear deterrent is by most deemed ill-advised, it also stems from a deeper unease: How to navigate a world where Russia appears increasingly aggressive and the United States more unpredictable. Rather than hastily pursuing nuclear alternatives, European leaders must define their Russia problem first.