Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAI at the Nexus of Nuclear Deterrence: Enhancing Left of Launch OperationsBySalman AsgharPublished May 23, 2025Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance “left of launch” operations—preemptive strategies aimed at neutralizing missile threats before launch—by improving real-time data analysis, threat detection, and decision-making. While AI offers strategic advantages in missile defense and deterrence, it also introduces significant risks related to miscalculation and escalation, necessitating a cautious and balanced integration into nuclear strategies.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Led to the Recent Crisis Between India and Pakistan?ByDiya AshtakalaPublished May 22, 2025On May 7, 2025, India launched missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir. India stated that the strikes targeted terrorist infrastructure, while Pakistan rejected India’s claims. The strikes took place after two weeks of flare-ups between India and Pakistan following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, a town in India-administered Kashmir. Both countries adopted diplomatic and military measures in response…
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityKeep it Secret, Keep it SafeByBerkley PelletierPublished May 21, 2025The past three decades have revealed troubling gaps in the safekeeping of U.S. nuclear secrets. While U.S. adversaries like China stand to gain from these lapses, the real threat comes from within.
Analysis / CommentaryWe Need More Off-Ramps for Nuclear CrisesByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025States should develop off-ramps—such as crisis communications, third-party mediation, and narrative manipulation—now and in advance of crises in order to reduce the risk of nuclear use.
Analysis / CommentaryRussian Inconsistency on Arms Control Is an Opportunity for EuropeByHeather WilliamsPublished May 12, 2025While Russia has been inconsistent in its messaging about arms control, Moscow has remained consistent in insisting that European nuclear powers be part of any future agreement—both messages present challenges, but also opportunities for the future of arms control.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRedefining Deterrence: The Impact of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear and Conventional Military ForcesByAnkit KPublished May 7, 2025This piece explores emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, autonomous systems, and advanced nuclear capabilities in the context of military applications.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Battlefield Above: Why the U.S. Must Enhance Deterrence to Prevent a Space War with ChinaByAlex Alfirraz ScheersPublished May 6, 2025 The United States’s ability to secure its vital interests is contingent on how effectively and credibly it deters China from space.
Analysis / CommentaryRevising Missile Controls Is Necessary to Help Allies and Prevent New Nuclear StatesByPranay Vaddi and Ola CraftPublished May 6, 2025Trump’s defense agenda could benefit from the Biden administration’s final MTCR reforms, which align with Trump’s goals to strengthen the U.S. industrial base while building allied capabilities, deterring adversaries, and preventing nuclear proliferation.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAmerica First, Allies, and Adversaries: Balancing Arms Control and Nonproliferation ByLachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished May 1, 2025President Trump appears willing to make significant concessions on regional security issues—potentially including support for key partners—to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Three areas of U.S. policy will influence whether this approach raises the risks of allied proliferation: the administration’s approach to nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and security concessions.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityEmbracing Irreversibility Amid NPT Diplomatic Deadlock: A Quest for African States to Seek Innovative SolutionsByKudakwashe MapakoPublished Apr 30, 2025This commentary highlights African States’ conception of irreversibility and associated reservations, how to achieve and maintain irreversibility, and the incentives for African States to embrace irreversibility ahead of the 2026 NPT Review Conference and beyond.