Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.
Analysis / CommentaryPitting Nuclear Modernization Against Powering AI: Trump’s Plans for the U.S. Plutonium StockpileByHeather WilliamsPublished Oct 14, 2025The Trump administration plans to redirect plutonium from the national stockpile to civilian nuclear energy projects, including to power AI data centers. How will this plan impact U.S. nuclear modernization plans and national security?
Analysis / CommentaryCould the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Be the First Step Toward a NATO-Style Alliance?ByDoreen Horschig, Diya Ashtakala and Bailey SchiffPublished Oct 6, 2025The pact reshaped regional dynamics by deepening Pakistani-Saudi ties, straining India’s balancing act, and raising questions about Israel’s air access. Despite its NATO-style language, it lacks the nuclear and political basis for true collective defense.
Analysis Returning to an Era of Competition and Nuclear RiskByHeather Williams, Joseph Rodgers and Elizabeth KosPublished Sep 16, 2025The future of modern warfare will feature increased reliance on nuclear weapons by adversaries and allies. Modern war strategists must develop a nuanced approach to prevent miscalculation and maintain stability in an era of renewed competition and growing nuclear risks.
Analysis / CommentaryParading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the ShadowsByHeather Williams and Joseph RodgersPublished Sep 8, 2025China’s Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityIs the Hunt Back On? Attacks on Strategic Forces Illustrate China’s Nuclear Survivability ConcernsByJupiter HuangPublished Aug 15, 2025Operation Rising Lion combined intelligence, asymmetric operations, and conventional forces to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israeli actions. When coupled with Ukraine’s attacks against Russian strategic bombers, mobile nuclear forces must now be resilient to a rapidly changing threat environment. This is most prevalent in the case of China. By focusing on building siloed ICBMs, China’s near-term nuclear forces remain much more vulnerable to disarming strikes than the numerical U.S.-China nuclear balance suggests. Beijing’s nuclear modernization has qualitative shortfalls that the U.S. must incorporate into force planning and arms control considerations.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / CommentaryDamage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuilt?ByJoseph Rodgers, Heather Williams and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.Published Aug 6, 2025U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAverting ‘Day Zero’: Preventing a Space Arms RaceByLauren ChoPublished Aug 6, 2025In response to emerging threats like Russia’s suspected development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, international attention has turned to the broader implications such systems may have for military stability, diplomatic relations, as well as legal frameworks governing space. Recent efforts reflect a growing push to reinforce norms through coordinated diplomatic engagement and renewed commitments to space security.
Analysis / MultimediaThe Negotiator Files: A Conversation with Chris Ford ByCSIS PONIPublished Aug 5, 2025This interview is a part of CSIS PONI’s Arms Control Knowledge Transfer Initiative (ACKTI), a program designed to preserve knowledge through senior expert interviews and primary source archival research, to educate the next generation of arms control experts on all aspects of arms control, including negotiation, implementation, inspection, and more. The full transcript and more information on the project can be found here: https://ackti-archive.csis.org/. Series The Negotiator Files
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityNuclear Weapons in the Age of the DOGEByAdam F. ReynoldsPublished Jul 25, 2025Nuclear modernization spending, though costly, pales in comparison to that associated with conventional warfare, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. Nuclear deterrence plays a key role in preventing wars for the U.S. and its allies. For effective nuclear deterrence, our weapons posture must be seen by our enemies as credible, which requires significant spending on nuclear modernization. Investing in nuclear modernization is not only about survival, but also offers potentially long-term cost-savings for the U.S. government through prevention of a war involving the U.S. or one of its allies.