Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / ReportWhat Allies Want: European Priorities in a Contested Security EnvironmentByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished May 13, 2025While the United States remains committed to NATO, it its placing growing pressure on its allies to shoulder more of the burden for European defense. As allies shoulder a growing conventional burden, they want to ensure US extended deterrence commitments remain.
Analysis / CommentaryParading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the ShadowsByHeather Williams and Joseph RodgersPublished Sep 8, 2025China’s Victory Day parade unveiled a full nuclear triad, challenging U.S. strategic superiority and signaling a new era of deterrence aimed at preventing intervention in a Taiwan conflict.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityIs the Hunt Back On? Attacks on Strategic Forces Illustrate China’s Nuclear Survivability ConcernsByJupiter HuangPublished Aug 15, 2025Operation Rising Lion combined intelligence, asymmetric operations, and conventional forces to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israeli actions. When coupled with Ukraine’s attacks against Russian strategic bombers, mobile nuclear forces must now be resilient to a rapidly changing threat environment. This is most prevalent in the case of China. By focusing on building siloed ICBMs, China’s near-term nuclear forces remain much more vulnerable to disarming strikes than the numerical U.S.-China nuclear balance suggests. Beijing’s nuclear modernization has qualitative shortfalls that the U.S. must incorporate into force planning and arms control considerations.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Trump’s Submarine Threat and Russia’s INF Exit Really MeanByHeather WilliamsPublished Aug 13, 2025Social media is again the preferred platform for nuclear signaling following an online clash between Trump and Medvedev, which included Trump’s announcement of repositioning nuclear submarines and Medvedev’s response to Russia’s announcement that it will no longer limit its intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Analysis / CommentaryDamage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuilt?ByJoseph Rodgers, Heather Williams and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.Published Aug 6, 2025U.S. and Israeli strikes imposed significant damage on Iran’s nuclear sites but failed to eliminate its program. The fate of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions now rests on a political decision, creating a window for diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAverting ‘Day Zero’: Preventing a Space Arms RaceByLauren ChoPublished Aug 6, 2025In response to emerging threats like Russia’s suspected development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, international attention has turned to the broader implications such systems may have for military stability, diplomatic relations, as well as legal frameworks governing space. Recent efforts reflect a growing push to reinforce norms through coordinated diplomatic engagement and renewed commitments to space security.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityNuclear Weapons in the Age of the DOGEByAdam F. ReynoldsPublished Jul 25, 2025Nuclear modernization spending, though costly, pales in comparison to that associated with conventional warfare, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. Nuclear deterrence plays a key role in preventing wars for the U.S. and its allies. For effective nuclear deterrence, our weapons posture must be seen by our enemies as credible, which requires significant spending on nuclear modernization. Investing in nuclear modernization is not only about survival, but also offers potentially long-term cost-savings for the U.S. government through prevention of a war involving the U.S. or one of its allies.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Climate Strain on the Nuclear Security EnterpriseByNext Generation AuthorPublished Jul 17, 2025This piece, the first in a two-part series on the nexus of climate change and nuclear security, will examine the impacts of climate change on the NSE, and highlight a handful of circumstances that would undermine the U.S. nuclear deterrent. The second piece will examine the cascading implications that this poses on the risk reduction and nonproliferation regimes.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityWhat does the American public think about US nuclear weapons policy?ByKaitlin PeachPublished Jul 10, 2025Kaitlin Peach discusses trends in American public opinion on nuclear programs spending and arms control treaties.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDisruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran Nuclear StrikesByBailey SchiffPublished Jul 1, 2025Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer were widely hailed as a marvel of operational success, but the true measure of strategic success hinges on a murkier question: did the strikes merely delay Iran’s nuclear program or dismantle it for good?
Analysis / CommentaryThe Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear ProgramByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer may mark the ceiling that conventional force can achieve against Iran’s nuclear program without triggering fallout. For Israel, this means future operations will likely involve sites that are more fortified or environmentally risky, or both.