Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDisruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran Nuclear StrikesByBailey SchiffPublished Jul 1, 2025Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer were widely hailed as a marvel of operational success, but the true measure of strategic success hinges on a murkier question: did the strikes merely delay Iran’s nuclear program or dismantle it for good?
Analysis / CommentaryThe Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear ProgramByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer may mark the ceiling that conventional force can achieve against Iran’s nuclear program without triggering fallout. For Israel, this means future operations will likely involve sites that are more fortified or environmentally risky, or both.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear AmbitionsByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 25, 2025Operation Midnight Hammer struck Iran’s key nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using B-2s and Tomahawk cruise missiles. This effort aimed to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, but its success is still to be determined.
Analysis / CommentaryIran and the Changing Character of the Nonproliferation RegimeByJoseph RodgersPublished Jun 20, 2025Rising tensions with Iran expose a volatile shift in the nonproliferation regime. As the regime’s normative power wanes, proliferation risks will rise, and military counterproliferation efforts will be more likely.
Analysis / CommentaryOptions for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear FacilityByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 20, 2025There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.
Analysis / CommentaryThree Things Will Determine Iran’s Nuclear Future—Fordow Is Just One of ThemByHeather WilliamsPublished Jun 18, 2025Further strikes on Fordow, potentially with U.S. support, could be imminent, but their success is just one factor that will shape Iran’s nuclear future—along with possible withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and support from Russia and China.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Do the Israeli Strikes Mean for Iran’s Nuclear Program?ByHeather Williams, Doreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Jun 18, 2025Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. The future of Iran’s program and regional proliferation risks will depend on the success of Israel’s campaign, the international response, and Tehran’s perceived need for nuclear weapons.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat Factors Drive U.S.-Israeli Differences on Iran’s Nuclear Challenge?ByDoreen Horschig and Bailey SchiffPublished Apr 9, 2025U.S.-Israeli differences over the Iranian nuclear challenge are growing. With Washington signaling interests in diplomacy and Israel advocating for military action, their diverging strategies could affect strategic alignment and coordination.
Analysis / CommentaryReviving Chemical Weapons Accountability in a Multipolar WorldByDoreen Horschig and Natasha HallPublished Nov 25, 2024Next week’s 29th Session of the Conference of States Parties of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is an opportunity to revitalize accountability and global cooperation in an age of impunity.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Striking Iranian Nuclear Facilities Is a Bad IdeaByDoreen HorschigPublished Oct 31, 2024Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could escalate tensions and push Tehran further towards nuclear weapons development. Diplomacy, although slow, remains the only viable way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.