Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDespite Progress in Talks, the Threat of a Nuclear Iran LoomsBySyed Ali Zia JafferyPublished Apr 24, 2025While the ongoing Oman process between the U.S. and Iran is a positive development, the threat of Iran’s nuclearization still looms. There are three reasons why this is the case. First, the trust deficit between the two parties is hard to mitigate. Iran remembers Trump’s first term and his approach toward the Iran nuclear deal in particular and Iran in general. Second, Trump’s threats of military coercion will make Iran more vulnerable, with hardliners, including Ali Khamenei, likely to see nuclear weapons as their best deterrent. Third, the disintegration of its Axis of Resistance has left it with no other option but to get a deterrent of its own. All of this means that jingoism must give way to prudence and deft diplomacy.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHezbollah’s Fall: Implications for Iran’s Nuclear AspirationsByBailey SchiffPublished Nov 8, 2024In ten days, Israel decapitated Hezbollah as an organization, leaving behind only fighters previously deemed not important enough to have a beeper. Beyond a tactical operation, by electing to conduct all three operations in daylight, civilians in Lebanon and Iran were forced to confront Hezbollah’s weakness. Although these operations were transformative, this crippling of Hezbollah will likely send nuclear shockwaves through the region by incentivizing both Tehran’s nuclear weaponization and Israeli targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities. As the region braces for continued conflict between Israel and Iran after the U.S. election, rather than striking nuclear facilities, Israel should target economic centers of gravity, bolster influence operations, and leverage domestic unrest in Iran and Lebanon to destabilize the regime. At the same time, the U.S. should raise the political and economic costs of maintaining a nuclear program. This approach can foster democracy, enhance Mossad intelligence operations, and compel Iran to reallocate military financing, laying the groundwork for lasting peace.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Israel-Hamas Conflict: Implications for Nuclear Security in the RegionByDoreen HorschigPublished Jan 11, 2024The Israel-Hamas conflict strains Israel-Iran ties, impacting regional nuclear dynamics. It may strengthen Israel’s resolve to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, prompt Iran’s nuclear acceleration, and hinder U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
Analysis / External PublicationA Redline for Iran?ByEric BrewerPublished Dec 23, 2021Eric Brewer and Nicholas L. Miller explore Biden’s potential red lines when it comes to the expansion of the Iranian nuclear program.
Analysis / External PublicationGetting to ‘No’ with IranByEric BrewerPublished Dec 1, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer and Henry Rome on the “Plan B” options if the Iran Deal does not succeed.
Analysis / External PublicationA Nuclear Iran is Not InevitableByEric BrewerPublished Nov 24, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer explains why it is not foretold that Iran will acquire a nuclear weapon.
Analysis / ReportIran’s Evolving Nuclear Program and Implications for U.S. PolicyByEric BrewerPublished Oct 15, 2021Iran’s nuclear program isn’t what it used to be. Read why that matters for efforts to salvage the JCPOA and any “Plan B” from Deputy Director Eric Brewer.
Analysis / External PublicationDoes Iran Actually Want to Rejoin the Nuclear Deal?ByEric BrewerPublished Jun 29, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer and Henry Rome write about Iran’s motivations regarding the Iran nuclear deal.
Analysis / CommentaryWhat’s Next for Iran Nuclear Talks?ByEric BrewerPublished May 19, 2021Deputy Director Eric Brewer writes about what the next steps are for the Iran nuclear deal.