Analysis / Next Gen CommunityHezbollah’s Fall: Implications for Iran’s Nuclear AspirationsByBailey SchiffPublished Nov 8, 2024In ten days, Israel decapitated Hezbollah as an organization, leaving behind only fighters previously deemed not important enough to have a beeper. Beyond a tactical operation, by electing to conduct all three operations in daylight, civilians in Lebanon and Iran were forced to confront Hezbollah’s weakness. Although these operations were transformative, this crippling of Hezbollah will likely send nuclear shockwaves through the region by incentivizing both Tehran’s nuclear weaponization and Israeli targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities. As the region braces for continued conflict between Israel and Iran after the U.S. election, rather than striking nuclear facilities, Israel should target economic centers of gravity, bolster influence operations, and leverage domestic unrest in Iran and Lebanon to destabilize the regime. At the same time, the U.S. should raise the political and economic costs of maintaining a nuclear program. This approach can foster democracy, enhance Mossad intelligence operations, and compel Iran to reallocate military financing, laying the groundwork for lasting peace.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Striking Iranian Nuclear Facilities Is a Bad IdeaByDoreen HorschigPublished Oct 31, 2024Israeli military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could escalate tensions and push Tehran further towards nuclear weapons development. Diplomacy, although slow, remains the only viable way to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Analysis / CommentarySix Days in October: Russia’s Dirty Bomb Signaling and the Return of Nuclear CrisesByLachlan MackenziePublished Sep 4, 2024In fall 2022, confronted by intensifying Russian nuclear rhetoric and intercepted conversations about nuclear use in the Russian military, the United States faced what may have been its most dangerous nuclear crisis in decades.
Analysis / CommentaryHow Are Cyberattacks Fueling North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions?ByDoreen HorschigPublished Aug 2, 2024After a two-year investigation, Google’s cybersecurity firm Mandiant accused North Korean hacker group Advanced Persistent Threat 45 (APT45, or Andariel) of engaging in a global cyber espionage campaign since 2009. The group attacked a variety of sectors (e.g., banks, defense firms, and hospitals) and targeted nation-states such as India, South Korea, and the United States on the…
Analysis / CommentaryDebating Global South Reactions to Russian Nuclear ThreatsByHeather Williams and J. Luis RodriguezPublished Jul 31, 2024Russia is responsible for its nuclear saber-rattling, not the countries in the Global South. Global South countries have condemned nuclear saber-rattling publicly in regional and international forums, even if some of them have not called out Russia explicitly.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe ceaseless return of the Eurodeterrent debate: Focusing on the right questionByLinde DesmaelePublished May 1, 2024While the concept of a European nuclear deterrent is by most deemed ill-advised, it also stems from a deeper unease: How to navigate a world where Russia appears increasingly aggressive and the United States more unpredictable. Rather than hastily pursuing nuclear alternatives, European leaders must define their Russia problem first.
Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRedefining the Nuclear Equation: Modernization and Strategic Wisdom in India-China DynamicsByAnkit KPublished Feb 19, 2024Given the intricate interconnection of modern geopolitics, emerging technology and changing military strategy, a longstanding assumption about numerical superiority being an effective deterrent can prove to be obsolete in the context of nuclear dynamics between India and China.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Deterrence Trilemma: South Asia’s Nuclear Landscape in 2035ByDiya AshtakalaPublished Feb 2, 2024This article aims to fill a critical analytical gap regarding the impact of China’s expected nuclear buildup by laying out the current South Asia nuclear landscape.
Analysis / CommentaryChina’s Waterlogged Missiles Don’t MatterByHeather WilliamsPublished Jan 29, 2024While recent reports of widespread corruption in China’s Strategic Rocket Force have rightly raised questions about the reliability of their nuclear forces, U.S. policymakers should not stray from current strategic plans and efforts to advance risk reduction with Beijing.