Analysis / CommentaryWhat Does India’s Hypersonic Missile Test Mean?ByDiya AshtakalaPublished Jan 3, 2025On December 16, India announced the test of its first long-range hypersonic missile. This missile makes India one of the few nuclear-armed countries to possess this technology, highlighting the intensifying global race for hypersonic technology.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityA Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space ByLuke WidenhousePublished Sep 30, 2024In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Analysis Automating the OODA Loop in the Age of AIByJames JohnsonPublished Jul 25, 2022Because of the confluence of several cognitive, geopolitical, and organizational factors, the line between machines analyzing and synthesizing (i.e., prediction) data that informs humans who make decisions (i.e., judgment) will become an increasingly blurred human-machine decision-making continuum.
Analysis / ReportIntegrated Arms Control in an Era of Strategic CompetitionByRebecca Hersman, Suzanne Claeys and Heather WilliamsPublished Jan 25, 2022Can contemporary arms control keep pace with the rapid rate of change in both geopolitics and technology? This study examines the implication and prospects for the future of arms control in a highly competitive security environment in which challenges from advanced technologies and diminished state control over processes of verification become increasingly prominent features, even as the scope and modalities of arms control grow more complex and multifaceted.
Analysis / ReportInfluence and Escalation: Implications of Russian and Chinese Influence Operations for Crisis ManagementByRebecca Hersman, Eric Brewer, Maxwell Simon and Lindsey SheppardPublished Nov 17, 2021As influence operations increasingly engage strategic-level interests, capabilities, and risks—U.S. infrastructure, institutions, elites, or those of our close allies—existing assumptions about their escalatory potential may not prove sound.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRussia’s New Nuclear Weapons: Responding To The ProblemByAkshai VikramPublished Sep 27, 2021While terrifying in their own right, the Russian hypersonic systems discussed here only underscore the threat of nuclear conflict – a threat that has existed for decades. They exacerbate existing dangers, sometimes in intriguing ways, but do not fundamentally reshape the seemingly always perilous U.S.-Russian strategic relationship.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityLessons from a Real-Life Insider: The Case of Leonid SmirnoByNoelle CampPublished Jun 30, 2021In the Smirnov case, the irretrievable loss limit for the facility was set unusually high at 3% of the facility’s nuclear material. In total, Smirnov siphoned off 1.5 kg of HEU, representing only 1% of the facility’s material.
Analysis / CommentarySurveillance, Situational Awareness, and Warning at the Conventional-Strategic InterfaceByRebecca Hersman and Reja YounisPublished Jan 15, 2021The expansion of dual-capable delivery systems and the diversification of strategic forms of warfare to include cyber, space, and advanced high precision conventional strike capabilities have sharply eroded structural conventional-nuclear firebreaks firebreaks. Series Nuclear Nexus
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityLeft of Launch: Artificial Intelligence at the Nuclear NexusByLindsey SheppardPublished Dec 17, 2020The areas of AI application into the nuclear enterprise are far left of an operational decision or decision to launch and include four priority sectors: (1) security and defense; (2) intelligence activities and indications and warning; (3) modeling and simulation, optimization, and data analytics; and (4) logistics and maintenance. Series Nuclear Nexus
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityAdapting to the Hypersonic EraByIan WilliamsPublished Nov 2, 2020Conventional hypersonic strike weapons may undermine deterrence by complicating early-warning and increasing the vulnerability of forward-based forces to surprise attack below the nuclear threshold. Nevertheless, history shows that adaptation to strategically disruptive technologies is possible. Series Nuclear Nexus