Analysis / Commentary2026 CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByHeather WilliamsPublished Feb 12, 2026Intensifying strategic challenges and growing nuclear risks reinforce the need for continued unity and close coordination among the United States, the United Kingdom, and France as responsible nuclear weapons states within NATO.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityOn the Horizon, Vol. 8ByDoreen Horschig, Alvina Ahmed, Hrishita Badu, Mar Casas Cachinero, Andrew Fishberg, Artur Honich, Shaquille James, Eliana Johns, Frank Kuhn, Sam Lair, Colin Levaunt, Ayazhan Muratbek, Yashar Parsie, William J. Peck, Ariel Phuphaphantakarn, Phillip G. Rombach, Shawn Rostker, Olivia Salembier, Jaclyn Schmitt, Clara Sherwood and Sarah StevensonPublished Jan 8, 2026A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation Series On The Horizon
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityIs the Hunt Back On? Attacks on Strategic Forces Illustrate China’s Nuclear Survivability ConcernsByJupiter HuangPublished Aug 15, 2025Operation Rising Lion combined intelligence, asymmetric operations, and conventional forces to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israeli actions. When coupled with Ukraine’s attacks against Russian strategic bombers, mobile nuclear forces must now be resilient to a rapidly changing threat environment. This is most prevalent in the case of China. By focusing on building siloed ICBMs, China’s near-term nuclear forces remain much more vulnerable to disarming strikes than the numerical U.S.-China nuclear balance suggests. Beijing’s nuclear modernization has qualitative shortfalls that the U.S. must incorporate into force planning and arms control considerations.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAverting ‘Day Zero’: Preventing a Space Arms RaceByLauren ChoPublished Aug 6, 2025In response to emerging threats like Russia’s suspected development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, international attention has turned to the broader implications such systems may have for military stability, diplomatic relations, as well as legal frameworks governing space. Recent efforts reflect a growing push to reinforce norms through coordinated diplomatic engagement and renewed commitments to space security.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityNuclear Weapons in the Age of the DOGEByAdam F. ReynoldsPublished Jul 25, 2025Nuclear modernization spending, though costly, pales in comparison to that associated with conventional warfare, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. Nuclear deterrence plays a key role in preventing wars for the U.S. and its allies. For effective nuclear deterrence, our weapons posture must be seen by our enemies as credible, which requires significant spending on nuclear modernization. Investing in nuclear modernization is not only about survival, but also offers potentially long-term cost-savings for the U.S. government through prevention of a war involving the U.S. or one of its allies.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAI at the Nexus of Nuclear Deterrence: Enhancing Left of Launch OperationsBySalman AsgharPublished May 23, 2025Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance “left of launch” operations—preemptive strategies aimed at neutralizing missile threats before launch—by improving real-time data analysis, threat detection, and decision-making. While AI offers strategic advantages in missile defense and deterrence, it also introduces significant risks related to miscalculation and escalation, necessitating a cautious and balanced integration into nuclear strategies.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRedefining Deterrence: The Impact of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear and Conventional Military ForcesByAnkit KPublished May 7, 2025This piece explores emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, autonomous systems, and advanced nuclear capabilities in the context of military applications.
Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / CommentaryCSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear DialoguesByHeather WilliamsPublished Apr 9, 2025Political shifts and a rapidly changing security environment continue to reinforce the importance of close collaboration and unity between the United States, the United Kingdom, and France as responsible nuclear weapons states and NATO alliance members.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Does the United States Need a More Flexible Nuclear Force?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Apr 9, 2025Deterrence is emerging as a theme for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, but questions remain about the Trump administration’s ability to deliver and maintain the nation’s nuclear deterrent.