Analysis / CommentaryA New Nuclear Age?ByReja YounisPublished Aug 20, 2024As the United States enters a “new nuclear age,” the Pentagon’s approach is based on three assumptions: coordinated adversarial behavior, limited nuclear employment, and the failure of arms control. Despite some evidence, none should be considered forgone conclusions.
Analysis / ReportUnderstanding Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-First CenturyByKelsey Hartigan, Reja Younis and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jul 31, 2024The United States faces an increasingly contested strategic environment that raises significant, unanswered questions about the role nuclear weapons will play in U.S. national security strategy going forward, and the forces that will be required to deter—and, if necessary, defeat—adversaries. For the first time in its history, the United States must contend with not one…
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear SaberByHeather WilliamsPublished Jul 31, 2024On May 6, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that its navy, air force, and ground missile forces would conduct tactical nuclear drills in the Southern Military District. These risky behaviors have drawn little-to-no response from the wider international community.
Analysis / Next Gen Community, ReportOn the Horizon Vol. 6ByDoreen Horschig and Jess LinkPublished May 14, 2024The Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a signature program run by the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) to engage emerging nuclear experts in thoughtful and informed debate over how to best address the nuclear community’s most pressing problems. The papers included in this volume comprise research from participants in the 2023 Nuclear Scholars Initiative. These papers explore a range of crucial debates across deterrence, arms control, and non-proliferation communities.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe ceaseless return of the Eurodeterrent debate: Focusing on the right questionByLinde DesmaelePublished May 1, 2024While the concept of a European nuclear deterrent is by most deemed ill-advised, it also stems from a deeper unease: How to navigate a world where Russia appears increasingly aggressive and the United States more unpredictable. Rather than hastily pursuing nuclear alternatives, European leaders must define their Russia problem first.
Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryThinking about the Unthinkable: Five Nuclear Weapons Issues to Address in 2024ByKelsey HartiganPublished Feb 23, 2024The United States needs to address five key nuclear weapons challenges in 2024. Managing these challenges will require leadership and careful attention from the highest levels—a commodity that will no doubt be in short supply in 2024.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRedefining the Nuclear Equation: Modernization and Strategic Wisdom in India-China DynamicsByAnkit KPublished Feb 19, 2024Given the intricate interconnection of modern geopolitics, emerging technology and changing military strategy, a longstanding assumption about numerical superiority being an effective deterrent can prove to be obsolete in the context of nuclear dynamics between India and China.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Deterrence Trilemma: South Asia’s Nuclear Landscape in 2035ByDiya AshtakalaPublished Feb 2, 2024This article aims to fill a critical analytical gap regarding the impact of China’s expected nuclear buildup by laying out the current South Asia nuclear landscape.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.