Analysis / Next Gen CommunityA Choice of Nuclear Futures in Space ByLuke WidenhousePublished Sep 30, 2024In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Analysis / Commentary, Next Gen CommunityArms Control Cannot Be Dead: Why the US should actively plan for engaging with Russia and China in the Long TermByAlvina AhmedPublished May 22, 2024Presently, the future of arms control looks bleak. Following its illegal re-invasion (Russia invaded the region of Crimea in 2014) of Ukraine in 2022, Russia suspended its participation in the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and froze the United States-Russia Strategic Stability dialogue. At the same time, the People’s Republic of China…
Analysis / CommentaryThe Uncertain Future of U.S.-Russia Arms ControlByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished Feb 23, 2024Time is running out for the United States and Russia to revive cooperation on arms control before the expiration of New START in 2026. Despite efforts from the Biden administration to kickstart progress, Russia remains an unwilling partner for the foreseeable future.
Analysis Information Pollution and What It Means for Arms ControlByJoseph RodgersPublished Jan 29, 2024Over the past decade, Russia has stepped up its disinformation campaigns to erode trust in arms control. Russian disinformation campaigns have served as a low-cost tactic for Moscow to spread confusion and distrust in the United States and other Western democracies.
Analysis / CommentaryChina’s Waterlogged Missiles Don’t MatterByHeather WilliamsPublished Jan 29, 2024While recent reports of widespread corruption in China’s Strategic Rocket Force have rightly raised questions about the reliability of their nuclear forces, U.S. policymakers should not stray from current strategic plans and efforts to advance risk reduction with Beijing.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityCountering Competitive Risk Compensation: Principles for Reducing Nuclear Risk on NetByMatthew GentzelPublished Nov 13, 2023In the context of strategic competition, efforts and interventions to reduce the risk of destructive nuclear or conventional conflict can change the incentives of leaders and institutions in ways that undermine risk reduction. As risk reduction is not the only objective that leaders may pursue, direct reductions in risk can accordingly embolden more aggressive behavior…
Analysis / CommentaryFuture Steps for U.S.-ROK Extended Deterrence ConsultationsByKelsey HartiganPublished Mar 8, 2023Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin travelled to South Korea last week to shore up U.S. extended deterrence commitments following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s comments about South Korea possibly developing its own nuclear weapons.
Analysis / ReportIrreversibility in Nuclear DisarmamentByHeather Williams, Jess Link and Joseph RodgersPublished Feb 28, 2023The Project on Nuclear Issues commissioned a series of think pieces to explore potential approaches and challenges to IND.
Analysis / CommentaryRussia Suspends New START and Increases Nuclear RisksByHeather WilliamsPublished Feb 23, 2023The suspension of New START further contributes to the demise of arms control, and it also eliminates one of the few remaining forums for dialogue between Moscow and Washington at a time of rising nuclear risks.
Analysis Arms Control after Ukraine: Integrated Arms Control and Deterring Two Peer CompetitorsByHeather Williams and Nicholas AdamopoulosPublished Dec 16, 2022This paper will first examine ways that the war in Ukraine may impact prospects for arms control, then pose first-order questions about future U.S. arms control policy.