Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThinking about Vladimir Putin’s Thinking: Will He Push the Button? ByLinde DesmaelePublished Sep 4, 2024There are numerous reasons why it would seem unwise for Putin to deliberately use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. One can hope that he will come to this conclusion, or that his advisors will convince him of this very case. Still, it is important not to project one’s own framing of a situation onto the Kremlin and assume that it shares the same risk tolerance. Any potential costs of nuclear use must be weighed against the costs of non-use and the perceived benefits of use and take into consideration Putin’s risk propensity. There is simply a lot we do not know about Putin’s thought process and history is fraught with miscommunication and misunderstanding. This is by no means to suggest that Ukraine and its partners should concede to Putin. Supporting Ukraine is a just cause. However, the best path forward remains one that acknowledges the serious risks involved, strives to reduce nuclear tensions and reinforces the nuclear taboo.
Analysis / CommentarySix Days in October: Russia’s Dirty Bomb Signaling and the Return of Nuclear CrisesByLachlan MackenziePublished Sep 4, 2024In fall 2022, confronted by intensifying Russian nuclear rhetoric and intercepted conversations about nuclear use in the Russian military, the United States faced what may have been its most dangerous nuclear crisis in decades.
Analysis / CommentaryDebating Global South Reactions to Russian Nuclear ThreatsByHeather Williams and J. Luis RodriguezPublished Jul 31, 2024Russia is responsible for its nuclear saber-rattling, not the countries in the Global South. Global South countries have condemned nuclear saber-rattling publicly in regional and international forums, even if some of them have not called out Russia explicitly.
Analysis / ReportUnderstanding Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-First CenturyByKelsey Hartigan, Reja Younis and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jul 31, 2024The United States faces an increasingly contested strategic environment that raises significant, unanswered questions about the role nuclear weapons will play in U.S. national security strategy going forward, and the forces that will be required to deter—and, if necessary, defeat—adversaries. For the first time in its history, the United States must contend with not one…
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear SaberByHeather WilliamsPublished Jul 31, 2024On May 6, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that its navy, air force, and ground missile forces would conduct tactical nuclear drills in the Southern Military District. These risky behaviors have drawn little-to-no response from the wider international community.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe ceaseless return of the Eurodeterrent debate: Focusing on the right questionByLinde DesmaelePublished May 1, 2024While the concept of a European nuclear deterrent is by most deemed ill-advised, it also stems from a deeper unease: How to navigate a world where Russia appears increasingly aggressive and the United States more unpredictable. Rather than hastily pursuing nuclear alternatives, European leaders must define their Russia problem first.
Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / CommentaryThe Uncertain Future of U.S.-Russia Arms ControlByNicholas AdamopoulosPublished Feb 23, 2024Time is running out for the United States and Russia to revive cooperation on arms control before the expiration of New START in 2026. Despite efforts from the Biden administration to kickstart progress, Russia remains an unwilling partner for the foreseeable future.
Analysis / CommentaryThinking about the Unthinkable: Five Nuclear Weapons Issues to Address in 2024ByKelsey HartiganPublished Feb 23, 2024The United States needs to address five key nuclear weapons challenges in 2024. Managing these challenges will require leadership and careful attention from the highest levels—a commodity that will no doubt be in short supply in 2024.
Analysis Information Pollution and What It Means for Arms ControlByJoseph RodgersPublished Jan 29, 2024Over the past decade, Russia has stepped up its disinformation campaigns to erode trust in arms control. Russian disinformation campaigns have served as a low-cost tactic for Moscow to spread confusion and distrust in the United States and other Western democracies.