Project Atom 2025: Escalation Management in Acute and Protracted Conflicts in the Indo-Pacific

To generate new thinking on the risks of escalation in the Indo-Pacific, the Project on Nuclear Issues invited a group of experts to develop competing strategies for managing escalation with China.

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To generate new thinking on the risks of escalation with China, the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) made escalation management in the Indo-Pacific the focus of its 2025 Project Atom series. The contributors each authored 5,000–6,000-word strategies using a shared analytic framework that addresses four specific topics: stakes and strategic objectives, escalation risks, military tools for escalation management, and diplomatic tools for escalation management. The strategies demonstrate agreement on key issues, including U.S. and Chinese objectives and the importance of deterrence. They also highlight important areas of disagreement, including the utility of nuclear weapons for deterrence and escalation management.

This report was made possible with support from the Northrop Grumman Corporation.

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