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Nuclear Weapons in the Age of the DOGE

Nuclear modernization spending, though costly, pales in comparison to that associated with conventional warfare, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. Nuclear deterrence plays a key role in preventing wars for the U.S. and its allies. For effective nuclear deterrence, our weapons posture must be seen by our enemies as credible, which requires significant spending on nuclear modernization. Investing in nuclear modernization is not only about survival, but also offers potentially long-term cost-savings for the U.S. government through prevention of a war involving the U.S. or one of its allies.

AI at the Nexus of Nuclear Deterrence: Enhancing Left of Launch Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance “left of launch” operations—preemptive strategies aimed at neutralizing missile threats before launch—by improving real-time data analysis, threat detection, and decision-making. While AI offers strategic advantages in missile defense and deterrence, it also introduces significant risks related to miscalculation and escalation, necessitating a cautious and balanced integration into nuclear strategies.

America First, Allies, and Adversaries: Balancing Arms Control and Nonproliferation 

President Trump appears willing to make significant concessions on regional security issues—potentially including support for key partners—to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Three areas of U.S. policy will influence whether this approach raises the risks of allied proliferation: the administration’s approach to nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and security concessions.

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