Analysis / Next Gen CommunityIs the Hunt Back On? Attacks on Strategic Forces Illustrate China’s Nuclear Survivability ConcernsByJupiter HuangPublished Aug 15, 2025Operation Rising Lion combined intelligence, asymmetric operations, and conventional forces to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles in retaliation for Israeli actions. When coupled with Ukraine’s attacks against Russian strategic bombers, mobile nuclear forces must now be resilient to a rapidly changing threat environment. This is most prevalent in the case of China. By focusing on building siloed ICBMs, China’s near-term nuclear forces remain much more vulnerable to disarming strikes than the numerical U.S.-China nuclear balance suggests. Beijing’s nuclear modernization has qualitative shortfalls that the U.S. must incorporate into force planning and arms control considerations.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAverting ‘Day Zero’: Preventing a Space Arms RaceByLauren ChoPublished Aug 6, 2025In response to emerging threats like Russia’s suspected development of nuclear anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, international attention has turned to the broader implications such systems may have for military stability, diplomatic relations, as well as legal frameworks governing space. Recent efforts reflect a growing push to reinforce norms through coordinated diplomatic engagement and renewed commitments to space security.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityNuclear Weapons in the Age of the DOGEByAdam F. ReynoldsPublished Jul 25, 2025Nuclear modernization spending, though costly, pales in comparison to that associated with conventional warfare, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. Nuclear deterrence plays a key role in preventing wars for the U.S. and its allies. For effective nuclear deterrence, our weapons posture must be seen by our enemies as credible, which requires significant spending on nuclear modernization. Investing in nuclear modernization is not only about survival, but also offers potentially long-term cost-savings for the U.S. government through prevention of a war involving the U.S. or one of its allies.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Climate Strain on the Nuclear Security EnterpriseByNext Generation AuthorPublished Jul 17, 2025This piece, the first in a two-part series on the nexus of climate change and nuclear security, will examine the impacts of climate change on the NSE, and highlight a handful of circumstances that would undermine the U.S. nuclear deterrent. The second piece will examine the cascading implications that this poses on the risk reduction and nonproliferation regimes.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityWhat does the American public think about US nuclear weapons policy?ByKaitlin PeachPublished Jul 10, 2025Kaitlin Peach discusses trends in American public opinion on nuclear programs spending and arms control treaties.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityDisruption or Dismantlement: Diverging Assessments of Iran Nuclear StrikesByBailey SchiffPublished Jul 1, 2025Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer were widely hailed as a marvel of operational success, but the true measure of strategic success hinges on a murkier question: did the strikes merely delay Iran’s nuclear program or dismantle it for good?
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAI at the Nexus of Nuclear Deterrence: Enhancing Left of Launch OperationsBySalman AsgharPublished May 23, 2025Artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance “left of launch” operations—preemptive strategies aimed at neutralizing missile threats before launch—by improving real-time data analysis, threat detection, and decision-making. While AI offers strategic advantages in missile defense and deterrence, it also introduces significant risks related to miscalculation and escalation, necessitating a cautious and balanced integration into nuclear strategies.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityKeep it Secret, Keep it SafeByBerkley PelletierPublished May 21, 2025The past three decades have revealed troubling gaps in the safekeeping of U.S. nuclear secrets. While U.S. adversaries like China stand to gain from these lapses, the real threat comes from within.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityRedefining Deterrence: The Impact of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear and Conventional Military ForcesByAnkit KPublished May 7, 2025This piece explores emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, autonomous systems, and advanced nuclear capabilities in the context of military applications.
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityThe Battlefield Above: Why the U.S. Must Enhance Deterrence to Prevent a Space War with ChinaByAlex Alfirraz ScheersPublished May 6, 2025 The United States’s ability to secure its vital interests is contingent on how effectively and credibly it deters China from space.