Analysis / CommentaryUkraine’s Drone Swarms Are Destroying Russian Nuclear Bombers. What Happens Now?ByMasao Dahlgren and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jun 10, 2025Ukrainian drones have left Russian nuclear-capable bombers in flames. Will Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack, conducted thousands of miles inside Russian territory, change Russia’s nuclear posture? Could the same happen in the United States?
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAmerica First, Allies, and Adversaries: Balancing Arms Control and Nonproliferation ByLachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished May 1, 2025President Trump appears willing to make significant concessions on regional security issues—potentially including support for key partners—to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Three areas of U.S. policy will influence whether this approach raises the risks of allied proliferation: the administration’s approach to nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and security concessions.
Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Does the United States Need a More Flexible Nuclear Force?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Apr 9, 2025Deterrence is emerging as a theme for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, but questions remain about the Trump administration’s ability to deliver and maintain the nation’s nuclear deterrent.
Analysis / CommentaryEscalation as a Path to Peace: Risk Tolerance and Negotiations in UkraineByLachlan MackenziePublished Jan 3, 2025The incoming President Donald Trump has made achieving a rapid, negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine a cornerstone of his foreign policy agenda. It is not clear, however, that the Kremlin sees a need to offer concessions.
Analysis / CommentarySix Days in October: Russia’s Dirty Bomb Signaling and the Return of Nuclear CrisesByLachlan MackenziePublished Sep 4, 2024In fall 2022, confronted by intensifying Russian nuclear rhetoric and intercepted conversations about nuclear use in the Russian military, the United States faced what may have been its most dangerous nuclear crisis in decades.
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Did China and Russia Stage a Joint Bomber Exercise near Alaska?ByHeather Williams, Kari A. Bingen and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jul 31, 2024On July 24, the North American Aerospace Defense Command intercepted two Chinese and two Russian bombers flying near Alaska. This incident was the first of its kind and could signal a growing willingness on the part of Beijing and Moscow to test American resolve.
Analysis / ReportUnderstanding Opportunistic Aggression in the Twenty-First CenturyByKelsey Hartigan, Reja Younis and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jul 31, 2024The United States faces an increasingly contested strategic environment that raises significant, unanswered questions about the role nuclear weapons will play in U.S. national security strategy going forward, and the forces that will be required to deter—and, if necessary, defeat—adversaries. For the first time in its history, the United States must contend with not one…
Analysis / ReportThe Long Shadow: Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Feb 23, 2024How have Russia’s nuclear narratives evolved over the course of the war in Ukraine? To address this question and evaluate future nuclear risks, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues conducted a study on Russian nuclear signaling during the first 18 months of the war.
Analysis / ReportDeter and Divide: Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in UkraineByHeather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan Mackenzie and Reja YounisPublished Jan 11, 2024Russia’s nuclear threats have underpinned each stage of the war in Ukraine as Putin attempts to deter and divide NATO support. However, if Russia faces battlefield setbacks, its nuclear threats could intensify, testing NATO’s resolve.