Analysis / ReportProject Atom 2025: Escalation Management in Acute and Protracted Conflicts in the Indo-PacificByHeather Williams, Lachlan Mackenzie, Elena Tiedens, Mike Albertson, Matthew Costlow, Adam Mount, Kori Schake and Rebecca ShrimptonPublished Jan 8, 2026To generate new thinking on the risks of escalation in the Indo-Pacific, the Project on Nuclear Issues invited a group of experts to develop competing strategies for managing escalation with China.
Analysis / CommentaryGolden Dome for America: Assessing Chinese and Russian ReactionsByRaymond Wang and Lachlan MackenziePublished Nov 20, 2025This article surveys Chinese and Russian reactions to Golden Dome and develops an initial assessment of its potential impact on arms racing and strategic stability.
Analysis / ReportStrategic Trends 2025ByNicholas Adamopoulos, Diya Ashtakala, Doreen Horschig, Lachlan Mackenzie, Catherine Murphy, Joseph Rodgers, Bailey Schiff, Pranay Vaddi, Heather Williams and Reja YounisPublished Nov 18, 2025In a world where old nuclear guardrails are eroding and new rivalries are converging, Strategic Trends 2025 charts how the United States and its allies must navigate a disorderly, multi-adversary nuclear landscape and rethink deterrence for an unpredictable era.
Analysis Russia’s Latest Nuclear Saber-Rattling: Nuclear Testing?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Nov 5, 2025President Putin’s instruction for Russian military and political leaders to begin “preparations for nuclear weapons tests” follows President Trump’s similar order last week, but also fits a wider pattern of nuclear saber-rattling tied to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Analysis / CommentaryUkraine’s Drone Swarms Are Destroying Russian Nuclear Bombers. What Happens Now?ByMasao Dahlgren and Lachlan MackenziePublished Jun 10, 2025Ukrainian drones have left Russian nuclear-capable bombers in flames. Will Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack, conducted thousands of miles inside Russian territory, change Russia’s nuclear posture? Could the same happen in the United States?
Analysis / Next Gen CommunityAmerica First, Allies, and Adversaries: Balancing Arms Control and Nonproliferation ByLachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished May 1, 2025President Trump appears willing to make significant concessions on regional security issues—potentially including support for key partners—to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Three areas of U.S. policy will influence whether this approach raises the risks of allied proliferation: the administration’s approach to nuclear modernization, extended deterrence, and security concessions.
Analysis / ReportGame On: Opportunities for Euro-Atlantic Strategic Stability and Arms ControlByHeather Williams, Nicholas Adamopoulos, Lachlan Mackenzie and Catherine MurphyPublished Apr 23, 2025Europe is likely to remain a theater of instability despite pressure for a peace settlement in Ukraine. As the United States shifts toward the Indo-Pacific and Russia continues to pursue its territorial ambitions, what might arms control look like after the war in Ukraine?
Analysis / CommentaryWhy Does the United States Need a More Flexible Nuclear Force?ByHeather Williams and Lachlan MackenziePublished Apr 9, 2025Deterrence is emerging as a theme for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, but questions remain about the Trump administration’s ability to deliver and maintain the nation’s nuclear deterrent.
Analysis / CommentaryEscalation as a Path to Peace: Risk Tolerance and Negotiations in UkraineByLachlan MackenziePublished Jan 3, 2025The incoming President Donald Trump has made achieving a rapid, negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine a cornerstone of his foreign policy agenda. It is not clear, however, that the Kremlin sees a need to offer concessions.
Analysis / CommentarySix Days in October: Russia’s Dirty Bomb Signaling and the Return of Nuclear CrisesByLachlan MackenziePublished Sep 4, 2024In fall 2022, confronted by intensifying Russian nuclear rhetoric and intercepted conversations about nuclear use in the Russian military, the United States faced what may have been its most dangerous nuclear crisis in decades.