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FeaturedReport

Trilateral Dialogue on Nuclear Issues

The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), has convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past nine years to discuss nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation policy issues and to identify areas of consensus among the three countries.

Event

The Half-Lives of Others: Explaining the Accuracy of Nuclear Proliferation Intelligence Assessments

The Half-Lives of Others is a comparative historical study of how intelligence agencies perform in assessing the proliferation potential of foreign nuclear programs. Contrary to pervasive skepticism, the study finds that intelligence agencies are generally adept at proliferation assessment and more likely to underestimate proliferation risks than to inflate them. Errors arise systematically from characteristics of the assessed programs and the assessment process itself. Nuclear programs that do not have international safeguards, include an advanced infrastructure, and import key technologies pose a special challenge to intelligence assessors. Countries holding open debates about their nuclear options and those who do not make formal nonproliferation commitments will also be difficult to assess. Using original archival and declassified documents, the study arrives at these conclusions by measuring the accuracy of American, British, East German, and several other European intelligence estimates, with a special focus on their assessments of the West German, Chinese, Indian, Argentine, and Pakistani programs.

Website

Nuclear Warhead Levels Fact Sheet

A regularly updated fact sheet created by the Arms Control Association on the numbers of active nuclear weapons, broken down by country. The fact sheet also includes a report highlighting current nuclear security concerns and information on countries that had a nuclear weapons program but disbanded it.

Website

Arms Control Country Profiles

A country-by-country breakdown produced by the Arms Control Association on the state of past and current arms control agreements, regimes, initiatives, and practices that each state has or has not subscribed to. The profiles also describe the primary weapons programs, policies, and proliferation record of each country.

Discussion

Reliving History: A Retrospective on Trident

The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) hosted this exclusive panel discussion recounting the formation of the seminal UK Trident Program, featuring four former U.S. and UK national security policymakers present for its negotiation: the Honorable Frank Miller, Sir David Omand, the Honorable Walter B. Slocombe, and Sir Kevin Tebbit. Please watch below as we revisit this momentous chapter of the U.S. and UK’s nuclear partnership, from the Polaris A3 through the Trident II, and examine its implications for the two countries’ special relationship today.