Nuclear Policy News – October 25, 2018

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Top News

Russia will target European countries if they host U.S. nuclear missiles: Putin
Reuters

Democrats demand answers about Trump plans to drop nuke treaty with Russia
Defense News

Tides of Change: China’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability
Carnegie-Tsinghua

 

East Asia

Trump’s missile treaty pullout could escalate tension with China
Reuters10/23/18
A U.S. withdrawal from a Cold War-era nuclear arms treaty with Russia could give the Pentagon new options to counter Chinese missile advances but experts warn the ensuing arms race could greatly escalate tensions in the Asia-Pacific. U.S. officials have been warning for years that the United States was being put at a disadvantage by China’s development of increasingly sophisticated land-based missile forces, which the Pentagon could not match thanks to the U.S. treaty with Russia.

U.S. position on N.K. sanctions unchanged as Koreas push railway project: State Dept
Yonhap News10/25/18
The United States has not changed its position that sanctions on North Korea must remain in full force despite the two Koreas’ push to reconnect railways and roads across their border, a U.S. government spokesperson said Wednesday. South Korea and North Korea plan to hold a groundbreaking ceremony between late November and early December to reconnect and modernize railways and roads along their eastern and western coasts.

Middle East

EU mechanism for Iran trade to be symbolically ready on Nov. 4: diplomats
Reuters10/24/18
A new European Union mechanism to facilitate payments for Iranian exports should be legally in place by Nov. 4, when the next phase of U.S. sanctions hit, but will not be operational until early next year, three diplomats said. The mechanism, a so-called special purpose vehicle (SPV), is designed to circumvent the sanctions, under which Washington can cut off any bank that enables oil transactions with Iran.

Russia/FSU/Europe

Russia will target European countries if they host U.S. nuclear missiles: Putin
Reuters10/24/18
President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia would be forced to target any European countries that agreed to host U.S. nuclear missiles following Washington’s withdrawal from a landmark Cold War-era arms control treaty. Speaking at a news conference after holding talks with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Putin said he wanted to discuss what he called dangerous U.S. plans to leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with U.S. President Donald Trump.

INF treaty: NATO has no plans for more nuclear missiles in Europe
BBC News10/24/18
NATO is unlikely to deploy more nuclear weapons to Europe should an arms control treaty between Washington and Moscow collapse, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said. Washington accuses Russia of violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty and says it will withdraw from it.

U.S. Nuclear Policy

Democrats demand answers about Trump plans to drop nuke treaty with Russia
Defense News10/24/18
Top Democrats on the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees are calling on the Trump administration to brief them on the president’s plans to withdraw from the Reagan-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. In a letter sent Wednesday to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the lawmakers warned that withdrawing from the INF Treaty and letting the 2010 New START nuclear arms reduction treaty lapse “would be short-sighted and detrimental to national security.”

Opinion and Analysis

The Ticking Nuclear Budget Time Bomb
War on the RocksKingston Reif and Mackenzie Eaglen
10/25/18
Whether one believes America’s nuclear weapons spending plans are good or bad policy, pursuing them poses a massive fiscal challenge that America’s military and political leaders can no longer afford to ignore.

INF Treaty: The problem with the arms control community
Defense NewsFranklin C. Miller
10/24/18
For arms control advocates, this is a critical juncture: “business as usual” while Russia continues to cheat, undercut treaties and destroy the integrity of arms control. The only way to save arms control is to insist that treaties agreed upon must be adhered to by all sides.

Tides of Change: China’s Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines and Strategic Stability
Carnegie-TsinghuaTong Zhao
10/24/18
In recent years, China has expended considerable efforts to build a sea-based nuclear force for the primary purpose of enhancing its overall nuclear deterrent. Although Beijing’s goal is limited and defensive, the practical implications of its efforts for regional stability and security will be significant.

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