Nuclear Policy News – October 24, 2018

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Top News

Bolton Rejects Russian Entreaties to Stay in Nuclear Treaty
New York Times

Pence leaves open the possibility of nuclear weapons in space: ‘Peace comes through strength’
Washington Post

Trump says he will probably meet with Putin next month in Paris
CNN

South Korea’s Moon ratifies deals with Kim despite backlash
Associated Press

 

East Asia

South Korea’s Moon ratifies deals with Kim despite backlash
Associated Press10/23/18
South Korea’s liberal president on Tuesday formally confirmed his recent reconciliation deals with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, triggering immediate backlash from conservatives who called him “self-righteous” and “subservient” to the North. Some experts say President Moon Jae-in’s move is largely symbolic, but others say it shows his determination to carry out the September deals despite growing skepticism about whether his engagement policy will eventually lead to North Korea’s nuclear disarmament.

Russia/FSU/Europe

NATO chief sees new U.S. missile deployments in Europe as unlikely
Reuters10/24/18
NATO’s top official on Wednesday blamed Russia for breaching a landmark nuclear arms pact that Washington is talking about quitting, but said he did not believe the Russian threat would lead to new deployments of U.S. missiles in Europe. The NATO allies are due to meet on Thursday to hear Washington explain the thinking behind President Donald Trump’s move to quit the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which rid Europe of land-based nuclear missiles.

Kremlin says Trump’s plan to develop new missiles is extremely dangerous
Reuters10/24/18
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to develop new ballistic missiles after the United States quits a landmark arms control pact were extremely dangerous. Trump, talking about Washington’s intention to leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, has said that the United States will develop new intermediate-range missiles unless Russia and China agree to halt development of their own.

Trump says he will probably meet with Putin next month in Paris
CNN10/23/18
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he would likely meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin at next month’s Armistice centenary in Paris. “It’s being discussed right now,” Trump said, referring to a “Mike Bolton” currently in Moscow negotiating the talks (he was presumably referring to national security adviser John Bolton).

U.S. Nuclear Policy

Bolton Rejects Russian Entreaties to Stay in Nuclear Treaty
New York Times10/23/18
Despite warnings that withdrawal could lead to a new nuclear arms race, the United States national security adviser rejected Russian entreaties on Tuesday to remain committed to a disarmament treaty. The adviser, John R. Bolton, suggested after a meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin and other Russian officials that little progress had been made in resolving President Trump’s complaint that Russia has reneged on the pact, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or I.N.F., Treaty.

Pence leaves open the possibility of nuclear weapons in space: ‘Peace comes through strength’
Washington Post10/23/18
Vice President Pence on Tuesday declined to rule out the idea of deploying nuclear weapons in space, saying that the current ban on their use is “in the interest of every nation” but that the issue should be decided on “the principle that peace comes through strength.” “What we need to do is make sure that we provide for the common defense of the people of the United States of America, and that’s the president’s determination here,” Pence said in an interview with The Washington Post, when asked whether nuclear weapons should be banned from orbit.

One nuclear treaty is dead. Is New START next?
Defense News10/23/18
As the Trump administration moves closer towards exiting the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, experts are left to wonder whether another nuclear treaty may be in the administration’s crosshairs. Asked about New START’s future while in Moscow, John Bolton. President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, said the government is “currently considering” its position on the agreement, but then added that the administration “does not have a position that we’re prepared to negotiate.”

Opinion and Analysis

How to Keep a Cyberattack from Turning into Nuclear War? Keep Talking
Defense OneAnkit Panda
[The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review] has widened the potential role of U.S. nuclear weapons in a way that neither increases the credibility of U.S. deterrence across the board nor stability with the United States’ newest nuclear-armed adversary. Before a miscalculation or provocation has a chance to test the Trump NPR’s boundaries, U.S. officials in their ongoing talks with North Koreans should make their intentions on nuclear weapons and cyberattacks crystal clear.

Pompeo’s Dangerous Delusions
Foreign AffairsColin Kahl
10/24/18
Pompeo contends that Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure”—including the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in May, the re-imposition of economic sanctions, credible military threats, and efforts to expose the regime’s corruption and human rights abuses—will reverse all [of Iran’s malign activity], producing a better nuclear deal, isolating Iran, and rolling back Iran’s nefarious activities across the Middle East. This is a dangerous delusion.

The INF Treaty hamstrings the U.S. Trump is right to leave it.
Washington PostElbridge Colby
10/23/18
The administration’s decision is sure to elicit a cacophony of criticism, but the truth is that the United States should no longer tolerate the INF status quo. The reasons basically boil down to two: Russia appears unwilling to give up the systems that violate INF (meaning INF is essentially a dead letter), and, more important, the United States no longer benefits from a ban on ground-based intermediate-range systems — but because of China, not Russia.

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