Nuclear Policy News – October 14, 2021

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Top News

As Iran nuclear talks fail to make headway, Biden administration suggests increasing openness to Plan B
Washington Post

ANALYSIS: Nuclear sub mystery highlights risk of China-US miscalculation
Voice of America

ANALYSIS: Six takeaways from North Korea’s ‘hypersonic missile’ announcement
38 North

United States

As Iran nuclear talks fail to make headway, Biden administration suggests increasing openness to Plan B
Washington Post10/13/21
In a trilateral meeting with Israel and the UAE, Antony Blinken stated that the Biden Administration remains hopeful that negotiations succeed but will pursue “other options” if diplomacy fails to contain Iran’s nuclear program.

U.S. envoy headed to Gulf to discuss ‘options’ on Iran’s nuclear program
Al-Monitor10/14/21
U.S. Special Envoy Rob Malley is meeting with the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to discuss plans should nuclear negotiations with Iran fail.

ANALYSIS: Bilateral strategic stability: What the United States should discuss with Russia and China
Bulletin of the Atomic ScientistsRobert Goldston
10/14/21
The U.S. should introduce several new topics to the Strategic Stability Dialogue with Russia, including limits on ballistic missile defense, the establishment of a common nuclear declaratory policy, and the elimination of silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and intermediate-range nuclear-armed missiles. Moreover, the U.S. should seek a similar dialogue with China on these topics.

Middle East

ANALYSIS: Bennett no longer considers Iran Nuclear Deal ‘historic mistake,’ but he can’t say so
Haaretz10/14/21
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett may consider the JCPOA as “the best guarantee” against Iran obtaining nuclear weapons but cannot share this publicly given domestic public opinion shaped by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

East Asia

ANALYSIS: Six takeaways from North Korea’s ‘hypersonic missile’ announcement
38 NorthVann H. Van Diepen
10/13/21
Much about North Korea’s “hypersonic” Hwasong-8 missile remains unclear, especially the payload and reliability of its current hypersonic glide vehicle. Furthermore, North Korea’s self-described “missile fuel ampoule” is less important than portrayed, but does illustrate the growing military significance of liquid-propellant missiles.

ANALYSIS: Can U.S. and South Korea public opinion align on North Korea?
Council on Foreign RelationsScott Snyder
10/14/21
American and South Korean public opinion on North Korea shows a high degree of alignment, particularly regarding denuclearization negotiations.

ANALYSIS: Nuclear sub mystery highlights risk of China-US miscalculation
Voice of AmericaRalph Jennings
10/13/21
The incident involving a U.S. nuclear submarine in the South China Sea raises worries about accidents and miscalculation, particularly as the U.S. and its allies conduct more freedom of navigation operations and China more aggressively asserts its territorial claims.

Pacific

ANALYSIS: Can Australia get second-hand nuclear submarines? The UK option
Australian Strategy Policy InstituteMarcus Hellyer
10/14/21
Any option for Australia to acquire Trafalgar class submarines from the UK is fraught with challenges and potential risks that far outweigh the benefits.

International

EVENT: Nuclear risk reduction: friction points
United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research10/18/21
In a side event to the UN First Committee, panelists will discuss nuclear weapon risk reduction and ways for great powers to bridge strategic perceptions gaps.

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