Nuclear Policy News – May 22, 2018

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TOP NEWS

If Kim Jong-un Keeps His Nuclear Arms, Can Trump Still Claim Victory?
New York Times

In Hard-Line Speech, Pompeo Criticizes Iran’s Behavior
New York Times

Putin claimed a new nuclear-powered missile had unlimited range — but it flew only 22 miles in its most successful test yet
CNBC

Trump Administration Nominates Outgoing Pacific Command Head as South Korea Ambassador
The Diplomat

EAST ASIA

If Kim Jong-un Keeps His Nuclear Arms, Can Trump Still Claim Victory?
New York Times5/22/18
From the moment President Trump accepted an audacious invitation to meet Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, he raised expectations that he would finally do what none of his predecessors had: get North Korea to abandon its nuclear arsenal.

Foreign Media Arrive in North Korea as Pyongyang Prepares to Close its Nuclear Test Site
Time5/22/18
A small group of foreign journalists arrived in North Korea on Tuesday to cover the dismantling of the country’s nuclear test site later this week, but without South Korean media initially also scheduled to participate.

Trump Administration Nominates Outgoing Pacific Command Head as South Korea Ambassador
The Diplomat5/21/18
Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr. will fill a long-standing ambassadorial vacancy in Seoul, if confirmed.

MIDDLE EAST

In Hard-Line Speech, Pompeo Criticizes Iran’s Behavior
New York Times
5/21/18
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used his first major policy address to deliver a hard-line speech on Monday, in which he demanded that Iran change just about everything regarding its behavior on the world stage.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promises ‘strongest sanctions in history’ and vows US won’t allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon: ‘Not now, not ever’
CNBC5/21/18
Mike Pompeo ripped into Iran on Monday during his first major speech as secretary of State — and on the heels of President Donald Trump’s decision to tear up an Obama-era nuclear deal with the Middle Eastern nation.

RUSSIA/FSU/EUROPE

Putin claimed a new nuclear-powered missile had unlimited range — but it flew only 22 miles in its most successful test yet
CNBC5/22/18
Russian President Vladimir Putin bragged that a new nuclear-powered missile had unlimited range, but it has yet to perform a successful test, according to sources with direct knowledge of a U.S. intelligence report on the weapons program.

MoD faces £2.9bn nuclear funding gap, say auditors
The Guardian5/21/18
Auditors say fragility of programme could destabilise entire MoD equipment plan

U.S. NUCLEAR POLICY

High court to hear challenge to Virginia uranium mining ban
Washington Post5/21/18
The Supreme Court agreed Monday to hear a challenge to Virginia’s decades-old ban on uranium mining.

OPINION AND ANALYSIS

America’s New Stealth Bomber has a Stealthy Price Tag
Defense One5/21/18
Revealing how much the Air Force’s B-21 is costing won’t help America’s enemies — but will make oversight possible.

‘Getting Past No’ with Kim Jong Un: The Psychology of Negotiation, and Kim’s ‘Art of the Deal’
38 NorthKenneth Dekleva
5/21/18
As North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump prepare for their historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018, informed observers could be faulted for missing the various historic analogies and their potent psychological symbolism.

Pompeo’s Iran Plan: Tell Them to Give Up
New York TimesCarol Giacomo
5/21/18
Since President Trump renounced America’s commitments under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal this month, the question has been what comes next. On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced what he expected to happen — Iranian capitulation.

The Trump Administration Calls on Iranians to “Make a Choice About Their Leadership”
The New YorkerRobin Wright
5/21/18
The new U.S. policy laid out a dozen new demands that put the Trump Administration on a collision course with the Iranian government—and falls only rhetorically short of supporting an uprising by the Iranian people.

The White House’s wishful thinking on Iran and North Korea
Washington PostIshaan Tharoor
5/22/18
It’s unclear what the maximalist stance struck by Bolton and Pompeo will achieve other than pushing the countries closer to military conflict.

Bolton is the new Dr. Strangelove
Washington PostRichard Cohen
5/21/18
Trump has cleaned house of moderates.

Will toughness on Iran help Trump with North Korea? Here are three reasons to doubt it.
Washington PostJames Lebovic
5/21/18
Trump maintains that renouncing the Iran deal signals U.S. strength and toughness to North Korea. In his words, “I think it sends the right message.”

The Ukraine Model
Slate5/21/18
The last time a country agreed to give up its nukes, it didn’t turn out well.

Mike Pompeo sets the stage for perpetual conflict with Iran
Washington Post5/21/18
In laying out maximal goals, the administration has set the stage for perpetual conflict with Iran, barring a revolution it is powerless to bring about.

In the Middle East, Soon Everyone Will Want the Bomb
Foreign PolicyHenry Sokolski
5/21/18
The region is at risk of a nuclear arms race. Washington needs to stop proliferation before it starts.

Pompeo’s Iran Plan Is a Pipe Dream
Foreign PolicyJon Wolfsthal and Julie Smith
5/21/18
The Trump team doesn’t have a post-nuke deal strategy — just a list of demands.

The United States Finally Has an Aggressive Plan to Defang Iran
Foreign PolicyRay Takeyh and Mark Dubowitz
5/21/18
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has an impressive strategy to counter Tehran and break free from two decades of failed U.S. policy.

Nuclear Deterrence In a New Era: Applying “Tailored Deterrence”
NIPPKeith Payne
5/21/18
By definition, effective deterrence requires that US deterrence strategies be sufficiently credible and intolerable to different adversaries to shape their decision making decisively.

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