Nuclear Policy News – May 13, 2019

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TOP NEWS

North Korea won’t give up all its nuclear weapons, former Defense Secretary Gates says
Politico

EU backs Iran nuclear deal ahead of crucial meeting
Deutsche Welle

Artificial intelligence, strategic stability and nuclear risk: Euro-Atlantic perspectives—new SIPRI report
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

East Asia

North Korea won’t give up all its nuclear weapons, former Defense Secretary Gates says
Politico5/12/2019
Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates said North Korea is unlikely to ever give up all its nuclear weapons, and that President Donald Trump was right to walk away from deal with leader Kim Jong-un in February. In an interview with CBS that taped on May 10, Gates said North Koreans have come to see some modest nuclear capabilities as “essential to their national survival.”

INTERVIEW: Ex-Trump top adviser justifies hard-line stance toward N. Korea
The Asahi Shimbun5/13/2019
Former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster was considered a hard-liner on North Korea in the year he served in the Trump administration. In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun, the 56-year-old retired U.S. Army lieutenant general explained that maintaining a military option against Pyongyang was always necessary, considering North Korea’s history of military provocations.

Middle East

EU backs Iran nuclear deal ahead of crucial meeting
Deutsche Welle5/13/2019
German, French and British foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to find ways to keep the pact alive amid Iran’s partial withdrawal. But US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is making a surprise visit.

U.S. Nuclear News

Pompeo skips Moscow, heads to Brussels to discuss Iran situation
CNN5/13/2019
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has canceled his planned visit to Moscow and is heading instead to Brussels to discuss “recent threatening actions and statements” by Iran, the State Department said Monday.

Pompeo to visit Brussels on Iran, shortening Russia trip: report
Xinhuanet China5/13/2019
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to pay an unannounced visit to Brussels on Monday to discuss “pressing matters” including Iran, media reported late Sunday, citing a U.S. State Department official. Pompeo therefore would cancel his Monday visit to Moscow, media reported, adding Pompeo’s Tuesday meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in the Russian Black Sea city of Sochi would not be impacted.

Russia/FSU/Europe

Putin to begin series of new-format meetings on defense issues on May 13
TASS Russian News Agency5/12/2019
Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin on May 13 a regular series of government meetings on defense-related issues, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Pskov said on Sunday. Putin announced plans of updating the format of such meetings at a meeting when he announced suspension of Russia’s participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. He did not disclose any details of the new format but said he would like to see the progress in the works related to the new systems Kinzhal, Peresvet, Avangard, Sarmat and others.

Opinion/Analysis/Commentary

The US and The Iran Nuclear Deal: Rejoining Is Wiser Than Destroying – OpEd
Eurasia Review – Elcano Royal Institute5/13/2019
A US return to the JCPOA would help contain the negative consequences. It would also recreate a more cohesive international coalition applying pressure on Iran to curb activities – specifically its development of ballistic capabilities and support to its proxies – that contribute so much to instability in the region. That pressure would then be combined with a credible diplomatic attempt to lay the groundwork for détente and lead to a regional initiative on missile threats and an intra-regional dialogue on a security architecture for the Gulf.

Britain’s Continuous at Sea Deterrent: Flawed Arguments by Disarmament Doves and Deterrence Hawks
RUSI – Sam Dudin5/9/2019
There are flaws on both sides of the debate over the future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

Two Nuclear Problems, One Policy: Maximum Pressure
The Atlantic5/11/2019
President Donald Trump faces two high-stakes nuclear problems with two rogue regimes. And in the pursuit of elusive grand bargains, he has relied heavily on one tool: “maximum pressure.”

Special Interest

From the A bomb to the AI bomb, nuclear weapons’ problematic evolution
France 24 – Sébastian SEIBT5/10/2019
Almost forty years on from that near debacle, AI seems to have disappeared from the nuclear debate, even though such algorithms have become ubiquitous at every level of society. But a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published on May 6 underlines the importance of this aspect.

Artificial intelligence, strategic stability and nuclear risk: Euro-Atlantic perspectives—new SIPRI report
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute5/6/2019
Since the beginning of this decade, breakthroughs in machine learning and approaches to AI engineering have enabled the development of increasingly capable AI applications and autonomous systems. In the military sphere, these advances have created many opportunities but have also raised concerns from ethical, legal, operational and strategic standpoints. This edited volume focuses on a new aspect: the impact on AI on nuclear strategy.

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