Nuclear Policy News – February 9, 2018

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TOP NEWS

The Quiet Diplomacy to Save the Olympics in a Nuclear Standoff
New York Times

Images from military parade show rare glimpse of North Korean nuclear arsenal
Defense News

Iran says it can discuss other issues if nuclear deal successful
Reuters

India Test Fires Second Nuclear Capable Ballistic Missile in a Week
The Diplomat

Nuclear Posture Review: The More Things Change…
Breaking DefenseRebecca Hersman

EAST ASIA

U.S., China reaffirm commitment to pressure North Korea: State Department
Reuters2/8/18
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi reaffirmed their countries’ commitment to exert pressure in Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons on Thursday, the U.S. State Department said.

How South Korean war preppers are getting ready for North Korea nuclear threats
ABC News2/8/18
Survival, he said, is measured in minutes — and every second counts.

Sister of North Korean Leader Arrives in South Korea for Highly Symbolic Trip
New York Times2/8/18
Senior North Korean officials, including the only sister of the North’s leader, arrived in South Korea on Friday, starting a three-day trip that is to include a meeting with South Korea’s president, the highest-level inter-Korean contact in more than a decade.

North Korea wants you to know it has at least 7 nuclear missiles that can hit the US
Business Insider2/8/18
North Korea’s military parade on Thursday rolled out seven intercontinental ballistic missiles that experts assess can strike the US — and it’s more than the country has ever shown before.

The Quiet Diplomacy to Save the Olympics in a Nuclear Standoff
New York Times2/8/18
If the North came to the Games, it seemed more likely to exercise restraint and refrain from the missile launches and nuclear tests that had rattled the world.

Images from military parade show rare glimpse of North Korean nuclear arsenal
Defense News2/8/18
On the eve of the Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Olympics, North Korea paraded its military arsenal through its capital in celebration of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army.

North Korea Military Parade: What Missiles Were On Display?
International Business Times2/8/18
On the eve of South Korea’s Winter Olympics, North Korea put up a display of military might at its historic Kim Il Sung Square on Thursday to mark the formation of Korean People’s Army by former leader of the nation, Kim Il Sung.

MIDDLE EAST

How a Saudi nuclear reactor could accelerate an arms race
The Economist2/8/18
Granting the Saudis such a deal could prompt other countries, such as the UAE, to ask for similar terms.

Iran says it can discuss other issues if nuclear deal successful
Reuters2/8/18
The West must ensure the Iran 2015 nuclear deal succeeds before trying to negotiate other issues, a senior Iranian official said in a rare public suggestion Tehran could discuss matters such as its regional activities or missile program with world powers.

Iran Plays Down Report That U.S. Secretly Asked for Talks on Prisoners
New York Times2/8/18
An Iranian official dismissed as “old news” on Thursday a report in the Western news media that Washington had reached out to Tehran in December to establish secret, back-channel talks to negotiate the release of prisoners held by both sides.

RUSSIA/FSU/EUROPE

Russia says it will wind down North Korean worker program
Washington Examiner2/8/18
Russia plans to implement a United Nations resolution barring the use of North Korean laborers by gradually cutting off their visas, rather than an immediate deportation, a senior government official announced.

SOUTH ASIA

India Test Fires Second Nuclear Capable Ballistic Missile in a Week
The Diplomat2/9/18
For the second time in just a week, India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) has test launched a short-range nuclear capable ballistic missile as part of its annual training cycle to test the combat readiness of the Indian Army’s missile forces.

U.S. NUCLEAR POLICY

Chairman of nuclear weapons oversight agency steps down amid internal turmoil
USA Today2/8/18
The chairman of a federal oversight agency responsible for safety at nuclear weapons facilities has stepped down amid turmoil over both his management and his recommendation to President Trump that the agency be abolished.

Scenes from an American military outpost
The Economist2/8/18
The threat from North Korea means there have been bombers on Guam for more than a decade.

OPINION AND ANALYSIS

Nuclear Posture Review: The More Things Change…
Breaking DefenseRebecca Hersman
2/8/18
Judging by reactions to the Trump Administration’s rollout of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), there is something in it for everyone. That means almost no one is happy.

The discrimination problem: why putting low-yield nuclear weapons on submarines is so dangerous
War on the RocksVipin Narang
2/8/18
Although the aim of the low-yield SLBM and SLCM is to close this perceived “deterrence gap,” proponents of these capabilities have elided one key problem: how the adversary may perceive and react to their use.

Beyond denuclearization: four priorities for managing the North Korea challenge
War on the RocksAdam Mount
2/9/18
Each month that passes that has the United States clinging to an outdated, invalid policy is one that runs a severe risk of war and allows North Korean activities to go unaddressed.

Trump won’t be president forever. Nuclear policy shouldn’t pretend he will.
Washington PostMax Boot
2/8/18
We should not let justifiable concerns about his mental stability lead us to make long-term decisions that will undercut the nuclear deterrent commanded by his successors — who, one hopes, will be better qualified to wield that awesome power.

Here’s Hoping the Winter Games Lead to a Thaw in Korea
New York Times2/8/18
Politics always mixes with sports at the Olympics, but as the quadrennial Winter Games open in South Korea, the stakes are as high as they have ever been.

How Strong is the Iran-Russia ‘Alliance’?
The DiplomatSamuel Ramami
2/9/18
Even though Zarif’s recent meeting with Lavrov aimed to showcase the strength of the Russia-Iran alliance to the international community, the long-term sustainability of the Moscow-Tehran alignment remains unclear.

The Weirdest—and Possibly Best—Proposal to Resolve the North Korea Crisis
The AtlanticPeter Beinart
2/8/18
The administration is nowhere near out of peaceful options.

The United States and South Korea now openly disagree on North Korea
Washington PostJosh Rogin
2/8/18
The behind-the-scenes break between Washington and Seoul over North Korea has now spilled into public view.

Will North Korea Win the Gold Medal for Deceit?
New York TimesJean Lee
2/8/18
This cross-border athletic exchange would seem to encapsulate the spirit of peace and unity at the heart of the Olympics. But I worry that it is too fast, too soon and that in their haste to ensure an Olympics without provocation, South Korean officials could be rushing headlong into a premature détente.

The US Nuclear Posture Review does not carry Trump’s signature
Defense News2/8/18
The main novelty of the recent U.S. Nuclear Posture Review is the emphasis on small nuclear weapons. That is exactly the opposite of President Donald Trump’s trademark: always being and having the biggest.

SPECIAL INTEREST

Daniel Ellsberg Thinks We’re in Denial About Nuclear War
New York Times Magazine2/8/18
I was part of a plan that should never have been made that was a crime against humanity.

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