Nuclear Policy News – February 14, 2019

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TOP NEWS

Pence Says Europe Pushing U.S. Away by Backing Iran Nuclear Deal
Bloomberg

Goals for any arms control proposal with North Korea
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The Myths and Realities of European Security in a Post-INF World
World Politics Review

East Asia

Trump North Korea Envoy Sees Gap in Nuclear Talks Before Summit
Bloomberg2/13/2019
The U.S. envoy to North Korean nuclear talks said it would be hard to resolve remaining disputes before President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Kim Jong Un, according to a South Korean lawmaker, a sign the American side may be playing down expectations.

Multilateral Arms Control

After Trump’s treaty withdrawal, NATO is getting ready for a Russia with a lot more missiles
Military Times2/13/2019
Moscow still has six months to come back into compliance with the INF treaty — but NATO is already planning for a future that includes a “Russia with more missiles.”

U.S. Nuclear Policy

Pence Says Europe Pushing U.S. Away by Backing Iran Nuclear Deal
Bloomberg2/14/2019
Vice President Mike Pence just confirmed what many Europeans have feared since the current administration took office: The U.S. and its oldest allies across the Atlantic are becoming estranged.

U.S. Open to Russia Nuclear Treaty and Warns Turkey on Arms
Bloomberg2/12/2019
The top U.S. envoy to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization said Washington was open to a broad treaty with Russia to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons while also warning Turkey not to purchase a new arms system from Moscow.

U.S. Revives Secret Program to Sabotage Iranian Missiles and Rockets
New York Times2/13/2019
The Trump White House has accelerated a secret American program to sabotage Iran’s missiles and rockets, according to current and former administration officials, who described it as part of an expanding campaign by the United States to undercut Tehran’s military and isolate its economy.

Opinion and Analysis

Goals for any arms control proposal with North Korea
Bulletin of the Atomic ScientistsJohn k. Warden & Ankit Panda
2/14/2019
President Donald J. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are expected to meet for a second summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, at the end of this month, with the goal of building on the largely symbolic outcomes of their first meeting in Singapore in June 2018.

Two Ideas That Might Stop a Post-INF Arms Race, and One That Won’t
Defense OneDaryl G. Kimball
2/11/2019
Discard the pipe dream of INF-plus-China. Focus instead on keeping new missiles too far away to strike.

Special Interest

Sig Hecker on North Korea in 2018
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists2/13/2019
In May 2018, Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) scholars Siegfried Hecker, Robert Carlin, and Elliot Serbin released an in-depth report analyzing the nuclear history of North Korea between 1992 and 2017 alongside a historical research-based “roadmap” for denuclearization.

The Myths and Realities of European Security in a Post-INF World
World Politics ReviewDominik P. Jankowski
2/14/2019
On Feb. 2, the United States formally declared its intention to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty. The official declaration, which had been signaled by the Trump administration well in advance, set the clock ticking: Unless Russia unexpectedly returns to full and verifiable compliance with the treaty through the destruction of all its INF-violating missile systems, the U.S. withdrawal will become effective in early August. The formal termination of the treaty will have wide-ranging implications for European security, the U.S. military force posture in Europe, NATO deterrence and defense policy, and arms control.

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