Nuclear Policy News – December 5, 2019

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TOP NEWS

Undersecretary affirms need for low-yield nuclear weapons to counter Russian, Chinese arsenals
Sea Power Magazine

France, Germany and UK reiterate claim that Iran has nuclear-capable ballistic missiles
CNN

Bad idea: Integrating artificial intelligence with nuclear command, control, and communications
CSIS Defense 360

United States

Undersecretary affirms need for low-yield nuclear weapons to counter Russian, Chinese arsenals
Sea Power Magazine12/4/19
A senior defense official reaffirmed the importance of the nuclear deterrent triad and the need for new sea-based, low-yield nuclear weapons to counter increased nuclear arsenals by Russia and China and Russia’s professed doctrine of early use of low-yield weapons to prevent a U.S. nuclear response.

Middle East

France, Germany and UK reiterate claim that Iran has nuclear-capable ballistic missiles
CNN12/5/19
Ambassadors from France, Germany and the UK have again alleged that Iran has developed nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, in a joint letter addressed to the United Nations Secretary-General officially released by the UN on Wednesday.

Russia suspends work at Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant over uranium compatibility issue
Reuters12/5/19
Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom suspended work on revamping a factory at Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant due to an issue with uranium compatibility, Rosatom unit TVEL said on Thursday.

IAEA chief hopes to set new tone with Tehran
Financial Tribune12/4/19
The new head of the UN nuclear agency hopes he can set a new tone with the Islamic Republic in his upcoming meetings with Iranian officials.

Europeans scold Iran for developing nuclear-capable projectiles
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty12/5/19
France, Germany, and Britain have voiced concern to the UN’s secretary-general that Iran has developed a ballistic-missile system capable of delivering a nuclear weapon in violation of the international body’s Security Council resolution.

ANALYSIS: Will Iran withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement?
The AlgemeinerRaphael Ofek
12/5/19
Given that enriching natural uranium for 20kg of nuclear weapons grade (of at least 90%) requires approximately 5,000 SWU, Iran seems to be about one year from having the fissile material for its first nuclear bomb.

East Asia

North Korea threatens to resume calling Trump ‘dotard’
Associated Press12/5/19
North Korea is threatening to resume insults of U.S. President Donald Trump and consider him a “dotard” if he keeps using words that provoke the North.

Kim again rides horse up sacred peak as N. Korea raps Trump
Associated Press12/3/19
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un rode a white horse up a sacred mountain in his second symbolic visit in less than two months, state media reported Wednesday, as his military chief lashed out at U.S. President Donald Trump for talking about a possible military option against the North.

South Korean president hears reassurances from senior Chinese diplomat
Reuters12/5/19
A senior China diplomat offered conciliatory remarks to South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Thursday amid efforts to repair ties strained by a U.S. anti-missile system, while leveling sharp criticism at the United States for “Cold War” thinking.

South Asia

ANALYSIS: Is Pakistan’s military building a base for air-dropped nuclear bombs? What satellite images show
The PrintAbhijit Iyer-Mitra
12/5/19
Satellite images show construction work on a site close to two military bases; significant expansion also on at a nuclear storage site in Sindh.

Multilateral Arms Control

ANALYSIS: The New START Treaty: Central limits and key provisions
Congressional Research Service11/27/19
Like START, New START contains detailed definitions of items limited by the treaty; provisions governing the use of national technical means (NTM) to gather data on each side’s forces and activities; an extensive database that identifies the numbers, types, and locations of items limited by the treaty; provisions requiring notifications about items limited by the treaty; and inspections allowing the parties to confirm information shared during data exchanges.

Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications

Bad idea: Integrating artificial intelligence with nuclear command, control, and communications
CSIS Defense 360Bryce Farabaugh, PONI Research Intern
12/3/19
Integrating artificial intelligence with nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) to create an automated strategic response system underestimates AI’s potential to inadvertently precipitate a catastrophic mistake.

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