Nuclear Policy News – December 4, 2018

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Top News

Trump wants to grant Kim’s wishes, South Korea says ahead of new round of summits
Washington Post

Iran missile tests may breach UN resolution, France and UK warn
The Guardian

Trump to discuss ‘arms race’ with China, Russia some time in the future
Reuters

Standoff Over INF Treaty Enters New Phase As U.S. Reveals Details Of Russian Missile
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

 

East Asia

Trump wants to grant Kim’s wishes, South Korea says ahead of new round of summits
Washington Post12/3/18
President Trump has a “very friendly view” of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and will make his wishes “come true” if he gives up his nuclear weapons, according to South Korean President Moon Jae-in, although Moon also cautions that sanctions will remain in place in the meantime. In remarks released Monday, Moon expressed optimism that Kim would visit Seoul soon, marking a first for a North Korean leader and sending the world a message of Kim’s commitment to denuclearize.

Mattis: N. Korea is most urgent threat to U.S.
Yonhap News12/4/18
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has called North Korea the most urgent threat to the United States as negotiations to dismantle the regime’s nuclear weapons program have stalled. Mattis made the remark at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, Saturday, when asked which of four countries — North Korea, China, Russia and Iran — poses the most serious threat to the U.S.

Middle East

Iran missile tests may breach UN resolution, France and UK warn
The Guardian11/3/18
France and the UK have echoed warnings by Donald Trump’s administration that Iran may be in breach of United Nations obligations by testing medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads. The remarks from Paris and London will be seen by the US government as the first sign that its key European partners may yet be persuaded to view Iran’s broader behaviour as so dangerous that their support for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal can no longer be justified.

Russia/FSU/Europe

Pompeo to Seek NATO Aid to Pressure Russia on Nuclear Treaty
Bloomberg12/3/18
Secretary of State Michael Pompeo plans to use a gathering of NATO leaders on Tuesday to ramp up pressure on Russia over what the U.S. has long said is Moscow’s failure to comply with a 1987 treaty on nuclear weapons. The U.S. wants to “stay in sync” with American allies over how to address Russia’s non-compliance, according to a senior State Department official who spoke to reporters en route to Brussels on Monday for the conference.

Standoff Over INF Treaty Enters New Phase As U.S. Reveals Details Of Russian Missile
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty12/3/18
The United States’ top intelligence official has quietly revealed key new details about Russia’s alleged violations of a bedrock Cold War nuclear treaty, an unexpected move that comes as U.S. officials push to build new support from European allies. Congress, meanwhile, is gearing up for a new fight over U.S. arms-control policy, even as President Donald Trump’s administration intends to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and has signaled lukewarm support for another even bigger nuclear treaty.

U.S. Nuclear Policy

Trump to discuss ‘arms race’ with China, Russia some time in the future
Reuters12/3/18
U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he would discuss military developments with his counterparts from China and Russia in the future, in the hopes of ending what he described as an arms race with the countries. “I am certain that, at some time in the future, President Xi and I, together with President Putin of Russia, will start talking about a meaningful halt to what has become a major and uncontrollable Arms Race. The U.S. spent 716 Billion Dollars this year. Crazy!” Trump wrote in a tweet, the day after he returned from the Group of 20 meeting in Argentina.

Opinion and Analysis

Can the U.S. Reinstate “Maximum Pressure” on North Korea?
Foreign AffairsEric Brewer
12/4/18
Those who fear a return to the days of Trump’s threats to “totally destroy” North Korea should support developing a smooth transition to greater international pressure if and when the time comes. After all, the failure to attract an international coalition is more likely to lead the Trump administration to rely on unilateral—and possibly military—measures. Taking these steps will preserve the option of returning to an effective maximum-pressure campaign, and will also make it more likely that Trump’s diplomatic gambit succeeds.

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