Nuclear Policy News – August 3, 2021

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Top News:

ANALYSIS: Commercial satellites — not U.S. intelligence — revealed China’s missile program
The Washington Post

N.Korea wants sanctions eased to restart talks with U.S., S.Korea says
Reuters

ANALYSIS: Without a nuclear deal, how close is Iran to a bomb?
The Washington Post

United States

New AFCEC division key to nuclear infrastructure modernization
U.S. Air Force8/3/21
The Air Force Civil Engineer Center recently stood up a new division to support the U.S. nuclear triad. The nuclear enterprise division, or CFN, supports the Department of Defense’s nuclear triad by integrating modernization efforts for the two Air Force-led nuclear delivery systems — intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers.

ANALYSIS: Commercial satellites — not U.S. intelligence — revealed China’s missile program
The Washington PostTheo Milonopoulos and Erik Lin-Greenberg
8/3/21
The increased availability of satellite imagery has major consequences for governments. By using commercial satellite images to reveal information that was once kept under wraps, nongovernment groups can present governments with difficult decisions about whether, when and how to disclose covert activities taking place around the world.

ANALYSIS: U.S. courts say Iran owes terrorism victims billions. That’s an obstacle to a new Iran nuclear deal.
Bulletin of the Atomic ScientistsChristopher A. Bidwell
8/3/21
If negotiators hope to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known informally as the Iran nuclear deal, they must address the billions of dollars’ worth of civil judgments by U.S. victims of terrorism against Iran. Failure to do so would disincentivize Iran from limiting or reversing its nuclear ambitions—out of concern that it would never receive meaningful economic gains in return.

East Asia

North Korea Is willing to talk, but first it wants fuel, suits and liquor
The Wall Street Journal8/3/21
North Korea has a few demands to restart nuclear talks with the U.S., according to South Korea’s spy agency. Kim Jong Un’s regime wants sanctions restrictions relaxed to allow exporting minerals and importing more refined fuel. Also on the must-have list: fine suits and premium liquor.

N.Korea wants sanctions eased to restart talks with U.S., S.Korea says
Reuters8/3/21
North Korea wants international sanctions banning its metal exports and imports of refined fuel and other necessities lifted before it restarts denuclearisation talks with the United States, South Korean lawmakers said on Tuesday.

ANALYSIS: China’s nuclear forces swell: A tri-polar world?
Breaking DefenseDean Cheng
8/3/21
The combination of a modern long-range bomber (the H-20), and an expanded seaborne ballistic missile force, as well as this massive inflation of the land-based ICBM component, makes China’s nuclear forces look far more like their “hegemonic” counterparts in Russia and the United States than the minimal or limited deterrent presented by French or British nuclear forces.

Middle East

Rouhani confirms Israeli heist of Iran’s nuclear archive
The Times of Israel8/2/21
On one of his final days in office, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Monday acknowledged an Israeli operation carried out by Mossad agents who broke into a secret warehouse outside Tehran and retrieved a huge trove of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear files.

ANALYSIS: Without a nuclear deal, how close is Iran to a bomb?
The Washington PostJonathan Tirone
8/3/21
Three years after then President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from a landmark nuclear agreement with Iran, Tehran’s government is closer to having the material needed for a nuclear weapon than if the deal had remained in place.

ANALYSIS: How could the Iran ship attack affect the Vienna talks?
The Jerusalem PostOmri Nahmias
8/2/21
“Historically, when faced with real pushback, the Iranians become more cautious. Will they seek an external crisis to try to promote a nationalist coalescence? Or will they look to defuse tension?”

ANALYSIS: Israel says Uran should ‘never become a nuclear power.’ But what if it already is one?
HaaretzAlon Pinkas
8/2/21
When politicians talk of a ‘nuclear Iran,’ what exactly do they mean? It is important to understand the terminology, and also for Israel to be on the same page as the Americans before nuclear talks resume.

Russia

OPINION: Russian naval-nuclear modernization heads West
Washington ExaminerAudrey Pederson and Sam Abodo
8/2/21
Russia’s naval parade last week was all about sending a message to the West.

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