Nuclear Policy News – April 30, 2019

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TOP NEWS

North Korea warns of ‘undesired’ outcome if no change in US nuclear stance
CNBC

The Madness of Nuclear Deterrence
Wall Street Journal – Mikhail Gorbachev

Signs of Life in Nuclear Diplomacy: A Look Beyond the Doom and Gloom
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs – Kayla T. Matteucci

US Nuclear News

US officials deny reports that missing Japanese F35 is found
Business Insider4/30/2019
“The Japanese Self Defense Force F-35A that crashed on April 9 has not yet been located or recovered,” an Air Force spokesperson said in a statement to Business Insider. “Japanese officials confirmed that some debris from the aircraft was found in early April, shortly after the accident. The US continues to support JSDF-led search and recovery efforts.”

East Asia

North Korea warns of ‘undesired’ outcome if no change in US nuclear stance
CNBC4/30/2019
North Korea’s vice foreign minister said on Tuesday that the United States will face undesired consequences if it fails to present a new position in denuclearization talks by the end of the year, state media reported. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has set a year-end deadline for the United States to show more flexibility after his second summit with U.S. President Donald Trump failed to produce a deal to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.

Russia/FSU/Europe

Gorbachev says there is urgent need for strategic engagement between US and Russia
TASS Russian News Agency4/30/2019
There is an urgent need for strategic engagement between the US and Russia on nuclear deterrence, former USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev said in an op-ed published in The Wall Street Journal. ‘Deterrence cannot protect the world from a nuclear blunder or nuclear terrorism,’ George Schultz, William Perry and Sam Nunn recently wrote. ‘Both become more likely when there is no sustained, meaningful dialogue between Washington and Moscow.’ I agree with them about the urgent need for strategic engagement between the US and Russia,” Gorbachev said.

Multilateral Arms Control

NPT preparatory committee meets
The Japan News4/30/2019
The third session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2020 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference opened Monday for a two-week run at the U.N. Headquarters in New York. Despite lingering threats of nuclear arms proliferation, including North Korea’s nuclear program, discussions at the preparatory committee meeting are widely expected not to go smoothly due to an escalating conflict between nuclear haves and have-nots.

Opinion/Analysis/Commentary

The Madness of Nuclear Deterrence
Wall Street Journal – Mikhail Gorbachev4/29/2019
Deterrence cannot protect the world from a nuclear blunder or nuclear terrorism,” George Shultz, William Perry and Sam Nunn recently wrote. “Both become more likely when there is no sustained, meaningful dialogue between Washington and Moscow.” I agree with them about the urgent need for strategic engagement between the U.S. and Russia. I am also convinced that nuclear deterrence, instead of protecting the world, is keeping it in constant jeopardy.

What today’s hyperpartisans could learn from Richard Lugar’s life of service
Washington Post – Editorial Board4/29/2019
What became known as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program ranks as among the most successful congressional foreign policy initiatives in a generation. It would not have happened but for Mr. Lugar, who died Sunday at 87. Mr. Lugar was an accomplished politician, but he did not see every day in the Senate as another round of partisan jockeying. Rather, he wanted to solve the big problems of the era.

Signs of Life in Nuclear Diplomacy: A Look Beyond the Doom and Gloom
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs – Kayla T. Matteucci4/27/2019
In the past few years, several troubling developments—from a renewed arms race between the United States and Russia to North Korea’s development of a missile capable of striking the U.S. homeland—have fueled an apocalyptic tone among nuclear policy practitioners. As a first-time observer of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2018, I quickly became aware that a deep cynicism had permeated most every corner of the international discourse.

Where Does the Russia-North Korea Relationship Stand?
Council on Foreign Relations – Scott A. Snyder
4/29/2019
Kim desperately needed to replace the narrative of weakness after failing to make a widely expected deal with the United States at the Hanoi summit with a narrative of strength, both domestically and internationally. Last week’s summit with Putin allowed Kim to show stature internationally and discuss alternatives to the U.S.-proposed big deal on denuclearization. But he failed to win Russian support for weakening the international sanctions regime.

Is Iran Running Out of Patience with Nuclear Agreements?
The Atlantic Council – Barbara Slavin4/29/2019
Ever since the Trump administration came to office, it has been applying pressure on Iran without provoking a new proliferation crisis. But the days of Donald Trump having his baklava, so to speak, and eating it too may be drawing to a close.

Special Interest

New technologies drive military spending: SIPRI
Deutsche Welle4/28/2019
Global military spending reached $1.822 trillion (€1.632 trillion) in 2018, according to an annual report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on Monday, marking a 2.6% increase. The US is at the top of the list of biggest defense spenders, recording an increase of 4.6% compared to 2017. SIPRI researcher Nan Tian told DW that “it is a massive amount of money being spent by the US — and it ranges from conventional weapons to nuclear capabilities.”

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