This presentation will present initial findings from the research which suggest that social media is not as escalatory as often portrayed by the media and international think tanks. Escalation is a complex web, rather than a ladder, and social media messages are typically interpreted through pre-existing narratives and perspectives, rather than serving as game-changers. For the most part, tweets are “cheap talk.” The research does, however, suggest certain conditions in which social media can have an escalatory effect by impacting the decision-making process. The presentation will include a brief overview of the project methodology, a summary of findings to-date, and recommendations for how nuclear policymakers can ensure Twitter remains in the category of “cheap talk” and the scenario in the 2020 Commission remains fictional.