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Assessing the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

Event

PONI Program Opportunity
Location: Washington, DC
Dates: March 1, 2018 - March 1, 2018
Published:January 31, 2018Last Updated:April 4, 2018
Categories:
  • Alliances
  • Nuclear Strategy
  • Regional Dynamics

The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI), with the support of Northrop Grumman Corporation, hosted a half-day conference to discuss U.S. nuclear policy and strategy. The conference followed shortly after the release of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and featured panel discussions on capabilities and regional challenges featuring a range of perspectives, as well as keynote addresses from Under Secretary of Defense John C. Rood and Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Mac Thornberry.

Overview of Keynote Speakers’ Remarks

In his opening remarks, Under Secretary Rood situated the 2018 NPR within the context of growing uncertainty in the international security environment characterized by adversary modernization programs and the increasing salience of nuclear weapons. He argued that the NPR reflected broad consistency with long-standing elements of nuclear policy while enhancing deterrence and assurance in a more challenging threat environment. Finally, he touched on the importance of developing a tailored set of capabilities to correct the potential for adversary miscalculations. Read the full transcript of his remarks.

In his address, US Rep. Mac Thornberry outlined three key points.

First, he referred to the U.S. nuclear deterrent as the cornerstone of national security. Thornberry stated that for seventy years the most existential threat to the United States has been a nuclear attack on the homeland. He emphasized the need for deterrence to prevent such an attack from occurring. However, he said deterrence is often neglected and its success is defined by never having to use the deterrent.

Second, he emphasized the need for continuous efforts. He emphasized modernization of weapons, delivery systems, and nuclear command and control to address the aging of the triad. He also said that it was important to consider changes in the international security environment.

Third, he praised the Nuclear Posture Review for leading the United States in the right direction.

Read the full transcript of his remarks.

View the Event Webcast

Event Agenda and Twitter Highlights

Opening Keynote and Discussion


John C. Rood

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, U.S. Department of Defense
Moderator:
Kathleen H. Hicks
Director, Senior Vice President; Henry A. Kissinger Chair; Director, International Security Program, CSIS

 

Clifton Jones for CSIS

 

USD Policy John Rood, speaking about Nuclear Posture Review @CSIS, notes complexity of current environment. No longer a bipolar Cold War as with the fmr Soviet Union, but more players, various threat levels, etc. #csislive #NuclearPostureReview

— Andrew Clevenger (@andclev) March 1, 2018

Rood at CSIS says the LYD5’s range and promptness specifically give US a low-yield capability not currently in US inventory with B61/ALCM. (Specifically mentions limitations of air delivery.) #csislive

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) March 1, 2018

 

What’s New in the NPR: Capabilities & Policies

Moderator: 
Rebecca Hersman
Director, Project on Nuclear Issues, and Senior Adviser, International Security Program, CSIS
Franklin C. Miller
Principal, Scowcroft Group
M. Elaine Bunn
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, U.S. Department of Defense
Adam Mount
Senior Fellow & Director, Defense Posture Project, Federation of American Scientists
Clifton Jones for CSIS

 

Nuclear SLCM partly about an in-theater tactical nuclear capability in the Indo-Pacific to counter Chinese nuclear capabilities, says Frank Miller. #csislive

— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) March 1, 2018

Regarding clarity vs. ambiguity in declaratory policy:

Franklin Miller: “It is what it is, and it isn’t what it isn’t.”@ajmount: “If only it were that clear.”

At @csisponi‘s “Assessing the 2018 #NuclearPostureReview” https://t.co/1hHTRaajoz #CSISLive

— Donald W. Taylor II (@donaldtaylorii) March 1, 2018

Adam Mount equates nuclear relations to the stock market, “if you say there is a gap, even if there isn’t, you will create a gap” #CSISLive

— Kyle Pilutti (@KPilutti) March 1, 2018

Panel Discussion on Regional Threats

Moderator: 
Rebecca Hersman
Director, Project on Nuclear Issues, and Senior Adviser, International Security Program, CSIS

Frank Rose

Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Kori Schake
Deputy Director-General, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
Sue Mi Terry
Senior Fellow, Korea Chair, CSIS
Ankit Panda
Senior Editor, The Diplomat

Clifton Jones for CSIS

 

I can sometimes be critical of the current administration, but 2018 NPR establishes good consultation mechanism w/ allies, says Frank Rose. pic.twitter.com/MoCvqbmhFe

— CSIS PONI (@csisponi) March 1, 2018

Chinese will be reading the Missile Defense Review even closer than #NuclearPostureReview, says @nktpnd. #CSISLive pic.twitter.com/X0ptcRlOAv

— CSIS PONI (@csisponi) March 1, 2018

.@KoriSchake: We’ve been too focused on preventing DPRK from acquiring nuclear weapons and not enough on denying the political value of those weapons – showing that it doesn’t change anything. #CSISLive

— EM Simpson (@charlie_simpson) March 1, 2018

 

Keynote Presentation and Discussion

Representative William “Mac” Thornberry
Chairman, House Committee on Armed Services

Introduction and Moderator:
Dr. John J. Hamre
President and CEO, CSIS

Clifton Jones for CSIS

@MacTXPress outlines his mainpoints as
1. The U.S. nuclear deterrent remains the cornerstone of our national security efforts
2. A lot of work is needed to continue our efforts
3. This NPR moves us in the right direction#csislive

— CSIS PONI (@csisponi) March 1, 2018

Our triad is aging and needs to be modernized. It’s not just the delivery system but the weapons themself and the nuclear command and control. Time takes its toll –@MacTXPress #csislive pic.twitter.com/rzGA98XcYz

— CSIS PONI (@csisponi) March 1, 2018

Credibility is the most important when we talk about strategic deterrence. – @MacThornberry

— CSIS PONI (@csisponi) March 1, 2018

All three legs of the triad need to be modernized, at no point does it exceed 7% of our defense budget. I think we can afford that. – @MacTXPress

— CSIS PONI (@csisponi) March 1, 2018

 

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