The United States has embarked on the process of modernizing almost every component of its nuclear forces, sparking a debate about the costs of such a project. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a report estimating that the nuclear force plans that the Trump administration inherited from its predecessor would cost $1.2 trillion between 2017 and 2046, and outlining options to reduce or delays costs. Michael Bennett from the CBO will present the report’s findings, and Kingston Reif will discuss its implications for policy.
Nuclear deterrence thinking has become so entrenched in U.S. academic and policy circles that it only seems natural that other states regard nuclear weapons in the same terms. Yet it is necessarily so? The presentation examines the case of Ukraine to understand how its leaders interpreted the meaning of the nuclear weapons deployed on Ukrainian territory in early 1990s.
PONI does not guarantee that the details of this event are current. Please check with the host for any questions or to confirm up-to-date information. Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century with Rebeccah L Heinrichs Senior Fellow at Hudson Institute Monday, November 20 4:30 PM The Institute of World Politics 1521 16th Street NW Washington, Read More
As the US “sous-Sherpa” or “Sherpa” for all four Nuclear Security Summits, Amb Holgate was responsible for designing the format, content, and process for the Summits, and for leading and/or representing the US in negotiations over the Summits’ outcomes. She will share insights into the unique multilateral forum represented by the Summits, and the various approaches and tools that were utilized in seeking tangible, meaningful nuclear security commitments and behavior from Summit participants.
The “Nuclear Security in the Second Nuclear Age Conference” aims to understand the emergence of Asia as the epicenter of the “second nuclear age” with India and Pakistan developing arsenals of surprising scale and scope. The panels in this conference will focus on: nuclear modernization and the future of the nonproliferation regime, technological changes and the future of deterrence stability, the nature of the nuclear competition in Asia during the second nuclear age, and the dueling significance of terrorism versus insider threats to the safety of nuclear arsenals.
Openings for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as recent bachelor’s or master’s level graduates within one year of degree, to engage in practical research experience to further their educational goals. Relevant fields of research may include nuclear engineering, computational sciences, materials science and engineering, cyber security, interactive data mining, political science, international relations and related fields.
The Half-Lives of Others is a comparative historical study of how intelligence agencies perform in assessing the proliferation potential of foreign nuclear programs. Contrary to pervasive skepticism, the study finds that intelligence agencies are generally adept at proliferation assessment and more likely to underestimate proliferation risks than to inflate them. Errors arise systematically from characteristics of the assessed programs and the assessment process itself. Nuclear programs that do not have international safeguards, include an advanced infrastructure, and import key technologies pose a special challenge to intelligence assessors. Countries holding open debates about their nuclear options and those who do not make formal nonproliferation commitments will also be difficult to assess. Using original archival and declassified documents, the study arrives at these conclusions by measuring the accuracy of American, British, East German, and several other European intelligence estimates, with a special focus on their assessments of the West German, Chinese, Indian, Argentine, and Pakistani programs.
The shift toward multi-polarity and a growing potential for major power conflict, combined with increasing populism, rapidly changing demographics, and emerging technologies, is presenting unique challenges to governments, militaries, and societies around the world. Allied Command Transformations’s (ACT) 2017 Strategic Foresight Analysis report identifies the key drivers of these global trends and their implications for NATO and the Alliance. The panel – featuring US and European experts on security, strategy, and foresight – will discuss how NATO and the Alliance can use insights from the analysis to help prepare itself for a future that is more complex, interconnected, and unpredictable.
Any decision stemming from the Nuclear Posture Review that risks derailing political support for modernization could, at the end of the day, weaken deterrence if the result is insufficient funding for the current plan.
A book from two leading Chinese nuclear scholars, “Understanding Chinese Nuclear Thinking” compiles writings from a number of prominent Chinese scholars to better explain the state’s perspective on nuclear weapons and nonproliferation.