Nuclear Policy News – January 31, 2018

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TOP NEWS

Disagreement on North Korea policy derails White House choice for ambassador to South Korea
Washington Post

U.S. general says North Korea not demonstrated all components of ICBM
Reuters

Cyber Attack Wouldn’t Merit Nuclear Strike: Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman
Military.com

Hawaii’s false missile alert sent by troubled worker who thought an attack was imminent, officials say
Washington Post

Victor Cha: Giving North Korea a ‘bloody nose’ carries a huge risk to Americans
Washington Post

EAST ASIA

Disagreement on North Korea policy derails White House choice for ambassador to South Korea
Washington Post1/30/18
The White House’s original choice for U.S. ambassador to South Korea is no longer expected to be nominated after he privately expressed disagreement in late December with the Trump administration’s North Korea policy, according to people familiar with the matter.

North Korea to parade dozens of long-range missiles before Winter Olympics
CNN1/31/18
North Korea is planning to show off dozens of long-range missiles at a February 8 parade, the day before the Winter Olympics is set to begin in South Korea, two diplomatic sources with deep knowledge of North Korea’s intentions told CNN Wednesday.

China may soon add more nuclear warheads to ‘beef up’ its nuclear capabilities to fend off US threat
International Business Times1/31/18
China has been urged to shore up its nuclear stockpile in the face of escalating geopolitical uncertainties in a commentary piece in the Chinese military’s official newspaper, the PLA Daily.

Trump: North Korea’s ‘reckless pursuit’ of nuclear weapons could soon threaten the US
CNBC1/31/18
President Donald Trump struck a dire note of warning about North Korea’s nuclear ambitions in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

Trump Was Calmer About North Korea This Time. That’s a Sign He’s Taking it Seriously
Time1/31/18
President Donald Trump’s remarks on North Korea in his State of the Union speech Tuesday night might have seemed uncharacteristically restrained.

U.S. general says North Korea not demonstrated all components of ICBM
Reuters1/30/18
North Korea’s nuclear program has made strides in recent months but the country has not yet demonstrated all the components of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), including a survivable re-entry vehicle, the vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Tuesday.

N. Korean diplomat accuses White House of seeking confrontation at the Olympics
Washington Post1/30/18
A North Korean official this week accused the White House of advocating for a “confrontation . . . at the sacred place of Olympic Games” in South Korea next month, after a senior White House official said last week that Vice President Pence will travel to the Games in an effort to counter attempts by North Korea to “hijack” the event by pushing its own propaganda.

Fears of US ‘bloody nose’ attack on North Korea on the rise
Asia Times1/31/18
Converging signals from the United States, Japan, South Korea and even the United Kingdom indicate that a US military strike on North Korea is more likely than ever – adding urgency to the peace initiatives launched by South Korean President Moon Jae-in during the imminent Winter Olympics.

MIDDLE EAST

What Trump said about ISIS, Iran and North Korea in his State of the Union speech
CNN1/31/18
“I am asking the Congress to address the fundamental flaws in the terrible Iran nuclear deal.”

U.S. NUCLEAR POLICY

Trump: We must ‘modernize and rebuild’ nuclear arsenal
The Hill1/30/18
President Trump on Tuesday pledged to “modernize and rebuild” the U.S. nuclear arsenal as part of his first State of the Union address.

Cyber Attack Wouldn’t Merit Nuclear Strike: Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman
Military.com1/30/18
No matter how ambiguous language in the upcoming Nuclear Posture Review may seem, a cyber attack on U.S. infrastructure would not warrant a nuclear strike on an adversary, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

To make and maintain America’s nukes, some communities pay the price
PRI1/30/18
Communities around the uranium mines and test sites needed for the production of nuclear weapons — places which are often socio-economically disadvantaged already — have been especially impacted by the health and environmental costs of nuclear weapons production.

Hawaii’s false missile alert sent by troubled worker who thought an attack was imminent, officials say
Washington Post1/30/18
The Hawaii employee who sent out a false alarm warning of an incoming missile attack earlier this month said he misunderstood that a drill was underway and believed that a ballistic missile had actually been fired at the state, authorities said Tuesday.

Hawaii Civil Defense Employee Mistook Drill for Actual Missile Attack
US News1/30/18
The Hawaii civil defense employee who issued the false missile alarm that stirred panic across the state last month mistook an alert drill for an actual attack, confused by conflicting messages used in the simulation, investigators said on Tuesday.

OPINION AND ANALYSIS

Victor Cha: Giving North Korea a ‘bloody nose’ carries a huge risk to Americans
Washington PostVictor Cha
1/30/18
These are real and unprecedented threats. But the answer is not, as some Trump administration officials have suggested, a preventive military strike.

Is Trump Preparing for War With North Korea?
The AtlanticPeter Beinart
1/31/18
The omissions in the State of the Union, and the fate of Victor Cha, all point in the same direction.

How to Successfully Sanction North Korea
Foreign AffairsPeer Harrell and Juan Zarate
1/30/18
The key to a successful sanctions strategy is recognizing that such measures take time to achieve results.

With nuclear weapons, we’re getting too comfortable thinking the unthinkable
Washington PostRichard Clarker and Steve Andreasen
1/30/18
A dangerous disconnect is emerging between the horrific impacts of even the limited use of nuclear weapons, and leaders and policymakers who seem intent on threatening nuclear use in an ever-expanding range of scenarios.

This was the scariest part of Trump’s State of the Union
Vox1/30/18
He talked about North Korea the way George W. Bush talked about Iraq.

Here’s How the U.S. and EU Can Thwart Iranian Missile Programs
Foreign PolicyBehnam Ben Taleblu and Richard Goldberg
1/30/18
If Trump is serious about fixing the deal, the transatlantic working group now tasked with forming a common U.S.-EU position must produce nothing less than a commitment to reimpose tough sanctions on Iran should the regime’s missile development and testing continue.

START from the basics to maintain nuclear stability
Bulletin of Atomic ScientistsAaron Bonovitch
1/30/18
While some might suggest that allowing New START to expire—or canceling it without some form of replacement—would be an appropriate response to the increasing hostility, that would be a catastrophic mistake.

Wanted: A U.S. nuclear strategy tailored to Asia
Japan TimesKen Jimbo
1/31/18
Given the rapid strategic deterioration in Northeast Asia in the nuclear realm, there are enough reasons why America’s top allies in Asia — Japan and South Korea — should strongly support the key directions of the NPR decisions.

Crises Between India and Pakistan – the Basics
Arms Control WonkMichael Krepon
1/30/18
Crises on the subcontinent are man-made and not accidental. The instigators have grievances and want to change the status quo.

SPECIAL INTEREST

When Nuclear Deterrence Is Your Job
The AtlanticColin Raunig
1/30/18
A former Naval officer looks back at the lasting psychological stress and paranoia of flying the skies, preparing for disaster.

The Pentagon once replied to an 11-year-old with big dreams about designing missiles – and it was really harsh
International Business Times1/30/18
The Pentagon once replied to an 11-year-old who submitted his own missile designs with a brilliantly harsh letter.

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