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Analysis / 

Alternative Nuclear Futures: Capability and Credibility Challenges for U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence

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Published
May 9, 2023

The U.S. extended deterrence could change drastically in the next decade due to increasing nuclear threats from countries such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The credibility of U.S. security guarantees for its allies is at risk, and the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues used an “alternative futures” approach to explore how this mission might be affected. In all scenarios explored, the United States faces a credibility problem that will require a new approach to consulting, planning, training, and operating with allies.

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  • Deterrence 101

    Deterrence 101 is a collection of three thirty-minute long videos that explore core deterrence theory. Each video describes basic deterrence concepts, roots these ideas in a historical timeline, and features interviews with leading nuclear policy experts.

  • On the Radar

    On the Radar provides analysis on emerging technologies that are expected to reshape situational awareness across the spectrum of conflict, and examines the implications of these technologies for nuclear strategic stability. It is a product of a two-year research collaboration between the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Nuclear Policy Working Group (NPWG) at the University California Berkeley, funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

  • Nuclear Narrative

    This study aims to create a dialogue with the nation’s nuclear personnel about the rationales for the U.S. nuclear arsenal that already exist—some of which have been stated at the highest levels of leadership—to ask what the nuclear forces actually hear, what works and what does not, and what motivates them on a daily basis.

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    Each year PONI hosts four conferences that bring together people from across the nuclear enterprise to discuss a range of nuclear issues. The PONI yearly conference series brings together junior and senior level professionals from the laboratories, the military, and industry, academia and policy sectors to hear selected presentations on a range of topics related to nuclear weapons policy and strategy.

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    The PONI Mid-Career Cadre is a select group of nuclear professionals that have been in the field for 7 or more years and demonstrate particular promise for developing expertise and moving into leadership positions. Mid-career members come from technical, policy, and military backgrounds. Upon selection, Cadre members participate for three-year terms.

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    The Nuclear Scholars Initiative aims to provide top graduate students and young professionals from around the country with a unique venue to interact and dialogue with senior experts on nuclear weapons issues. Those accepted into the program are hosted once per month over the course of six months at CSIS in Washington, DC where they participate in daylong workshops.

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Next Gen Highlights

  • 1st Lieutenant Jesse Lubove

    1st Lieutenant Jesse Lubove is a member of the 22nd Surveillance Squadron at the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC) on Patrick Space Force Base, Florida.

  • Aubrey Means

    Aubrey Means is based in New York City and currently works in international sanctions compliance for BNP Paribas. She holds a Masters degree in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, where she focused on nuclear policy and Arabic language studies.

  • Brandon Cortino

    Brandon Cortino is currently a deterrence analyst for Constellation West where he supports U.S. Strategic Command’s Academic Alliance. He specializes on Russian thought in defense policy after living 19 months in Russia including a year studying advanced Russian at Saint-Petersburg State University.

About PONI

The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) cultivates young professionals by building relationships, deepening understanding, and sharing perspectives across the full range of nuclear issues and communities.
The content of this web site does not constitute an endorsement by or opinion of the Project on Nuclear Issues or any sponsor of PONI.

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Deputy Director and Senior Fellow