Nuclear Policy News – November 5, 2020

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Top News:

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons set to enter into force
The Diplomat

House Armed Services chairman foreshadows change to nuclear posture and modernization delay if Biden wins
Washington Examiner

U.S. election result ‘will not affect Iran’s policy’ – Khamenei
BBC

United States

House Armed Services chairman foreshadows change to nuclear posture and modernization delay if Biden wins
Washington Examiner11/3/20
America’s nuclear modernization effort may be in for a delay or the elimination of the ground-based deterrent if Joe Biden wins the presidency, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith indicated in a recent discussion.

ANALYSIS: Arms control and great power politics
War on the RocksTimothy Crawford and Khang Vu
11/4/20
The administration of President Donald Trump seems to consider arms control — specifically, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) — a useful tool to frustrate ties between China and Russia.

East Asia

New North Korea submarine capable of firing ballistic missiles, South says
South China Morning Post11/3/20
A South Korean official said the North is building two new submarines, including a second one that can carry a submarine-launched ballistic missile.

South Korean lawmaker says North building submarine capable of firing ballistic missiles
The Hill11/3/20
North Korea is building two new submarines, one of which is capable of carrying submarine-launched ballistic missiles, a South Korean official told Reuters Tuesday.

ANALYSIS: Living with a nuclear-arming North Korea: deterrence decisions in a deteriorating threat environment
StimsonBrad Roberts
11/4/20
As the latest chapter in US diplomacy aimed at denuclearizing North Korea comes to another unhappy end, it is time to take stock.

ANALYSIS: Peeking under the shroud of North Korea’s monster missile
Arms Control WonkJosh Pollack
11/5/20
Some unresolved questions surround the huge new mobile missiles that North Korea showed off in last month’s parade.

Middle East

U.S. election result ‘will not affect Iran’s policy’ – Khamenei
BBC11/3/20
“Our policy… is clearly defined. It does not change with the movement of individuals,” he said. “It does not matter to us who comes and goes.”

U.S. may return to Iran nuclear deal if Biden is elected president, says Russian senator
Tass11/5/20
According to him, however, it doesn’t mean that the US will ease its pressure on Iran.

ANALYSIS: How a Biden win could transform U.S. policy in the Middle East and North Africa
European Council on Foreign RelationsAsli Aydintasbas et al
11/3/20
Victory for Joe Biden is likely to bring three big policy shifts in the region, opening new possibilities and challenges for Europeans.

Russia and Europe

RESEARCH: Perceptions in the Euro-Atlantic
UNIDIRUlrich Kuhn
11/2/20
The third instalment of our Nuclear Risk Reduction policy brief series, this publication looks at the risk of nuclear weapons use in the Euro-Atlantic. It discusses sources of the political volatility and risk drivers that are contributing to the tense environment, and recommendations in the service of nuclear risk reduction.

Multilateral Arms Control

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons set to enter into force
The DiplomatRajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
11/5/20
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuke Ban Treaty, is set to enter into force soon.

First Committee approves 22 drafts, most be recorded votes, reflecting growing divergence
UN11/3/20
Reflecting a growing divergence on how best to rid the world of atomic arsenals, the First Committee (Disarmament and International Security) held more than 50 separate recorded votes on multiple provisions of the 22 nuclear‑weapon‑related draft resolutions and decisions Member States approved today.

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