Nuclear Policy News – November 21, 2018

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Top News

Pompeo sounds word of caution on expansion of Korea ties
Military Times

International Atomic Energy Agency to re-certify Iranian compliance with nuclear deal
Foreign Brief

North Korea expert says nuclear threat remains

East Asia

As clock ticks, South Korea looks for a leap of faith from Washington over North Korea
Washington Post11/21/2018
On the militarized front line dividing the Korean Peninsula, South Korea has been busy bulldozing and blowing up some of its guard posts. It is a symbol of what Seoul hopes will be a new era of relations with Pyongyang. But it also one of the few steps South Korea can take to build confidence with the North without violating U.N. sanctions or going against its U.S. allies and protectors.

South Korea releases video of North Korea blowing up 10 guard posts in DMZ
The Independent11/20/2018
South Korea has released video showing North Korea destroying ten guard posts in the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) as part of the peace process between the two nations. During a summit in September, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to dismantle the heavily fortified, 155-mile (248 km) border set up in the wake of the Korean War between the two countries.

Pompeo sounds word of caution on expansion of Korea ties
Military Times11/20/2018
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday the U.S. has “made clear” to South Korea that progress on disarming North Korea should not lag behind the expansion of relations between the two Koreas.

China Has More Nuclear Subs Than the West Believed
Defense One11/20/2018
Western observers have likely underestimated the number of Chinese nuclear submarines in development, but overestimated how many are operational, a new analysis suggests. In particular, only half of China’s nuclear-armed SSBNs appear to be in operation.

Middle East

International Atomic Energy Agency to re-certify Iranian compliance with nuclear deal
Foreign Brief11/21/2018
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its November board of governors meeting today, where it’s expected to recertify Iran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.

Multilateral Arms Control

These are the 9 nuclear-armed countries and the 31 allies they’ve vowed to defend with the world’s most devastating weapons
Business Insider11/19/2018
The United Nations has introduced a treaty that it believes will eventually lead to the total elimination of nuclear weapons. A recent watchdog report said the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is a historically significant effort that’s gaining traction, which highlights the profound power imbalance between the few nuclear powers and the many countries without the devastating weapons.

Opinion and Analysis

Trump’s Iran Sanctions Could Work
Foreign PolicyMicha’el Tanchum
Those who doubt that U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran sanctions will hit their target should reconsider. It is true that their immediate impact on Iran’s oil export revenues will likely be minimal. But in the longer term, the effects of the sanctions regime could be significant. In fact, it could make it nearly impossible for Iran to sustain its current oil production.

Special Interest

North Korea expert says nuclear threat remains
Video – The findings of a Washington think tank reveal that North Korea may be progressing its ballistic missile program at 16 hidden bases. Victor Cha, one of the report’s authors, speaks to Christiane Amanpour.

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