Nuclear Policy News – July 2, 2019

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Australia may need to consider nuclear weapons to counter China’s dominance, defence analyst says
Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Iran’s Latest Nuclear Provocation: What it Means, What Comes Next.
Center for Strategic and International Studies

Special Report: Turkey and Nuclear Command, Control and Communications
Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability

U.S. Nuclear Policy

U.S. to Host Disarmament Working Group
Arms Control AssociationDaryl G. Kimball
7/1/2019
Diplomats from nearly three dozen nations, including China and Russia, will gather in Washington on July 2–3 for the first plenary gathering of a new working group to discuss a U.S. initiative, “Creating an Environment for Nuclear Disarmament” (CEND).

JUST IN: Air Force Wants to Utilize Commercial Satellites for Nuclear Command, Control
National Defense Magazine6/26/2019
The U.S. military is eyeing commercial satellites for nuclear command and control, said a top officer June 26.

New AIM-260 Missiles Are So Secretive They Will Require A Custom Storage Bunker at Hill AFB
The Drive7/1/2019
Budget docs dated March of 2019 give the first official explanation of the program and why it needs a $6.5M high-security storage vault at Hill AFB.

East Asia

Chinese nuclear forces, 2019
Bulletin of the Atomic ScientistsHans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda
6/28/2019
This issue’s column examines China’s nuclear arsenal, which includes about 290 warheads for delivery by ballistic missiles and bombers. This stockpile is likely to grow further over the next decade, and we estimate that China will soon surpass France as the world’s third-largest nuclear-armed state.

Chinese military conducts anti-ship ballistic missile tests in the hotly contested South China Sea
CNBC7/1/2019
China is in the midst of conducting a series of anti-ship ballistic missile tests in the hotly contested waters of the South China Sea, according to two U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.

Australia may need to consider nuclear weapons to counter China’s dominance, defence analyst says
Australian Broadcasting Corporation7/1/2019
One of Australia’s leading defence analysts has warned the nation may have to consider the “difficult” question of whether or not to acquire nuclear weapons as part of a strategy to counter the rise of China.

Russia/FSU/Europe

With Treaty Set to Expire, NATO Scrambles to Counter Russian Missile Threat
Defense One6/30/2019
A “dangerous and entirely avoidable reality” is just five weeks away.

‘Russian-made missile’ crashes into northern Cyprus
Al Jazeera7/1/2019
A suspected Russian-made missile has crashed north of the Cypriot capital, Nicosia, Turkish Cypriot officials said.

Russia plans to tow a nuclear power station to the Arctic. Critics dub it a ‘floating Chernobyl’
CNN6/30/2019
Next month, a floating nuclear power plant called the Akademik Lomonosov will be towed via the Northern Sea Route to its final destination in the Far East, after almost two decades in construction.

Opinion/Analysis/Commentary

Iran’s Latest Nuclear Provocation: What it Means, What Comes Next.
Center for Strategic and International StudiesEric Brewer
7/1/2019
Iran announced Monday—and international inspectors confirmed—that it had exceeded the amount of enriched uranium it can have on hand under the terms of the nuclear deal (known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA).

Trump Moves Away from Denuclearizing North Korea
The AtlanticUri Friedman
7/2/2019
The first Trump-Kim summit was about North Korea committing to giving up nuclear weapons. The second was about defining what that meant. This time, nuclear weapons didn’t even come up.

Special Interest

Special Report: Turkey and Nuclear Command, Control and Communications
Nautilus Institute for Security and SustainabilityCan Kasapoğlu
6/27/2019
In this essay, Can Kasapoğlu argues that in contrast to the other four NATO “nuclear delivery states (Belgium, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Turkey), Turkey no longer appears to have an active nuclear weapons delivery mission using bombers and its NC3 system is likely dormant. “Yet,” he concludes, “in a hypothetical TNW scenario, the Turkish Air Force would manage the Incirlik base and air traffic for the US air wing, and would probably provide the strike package with fighter escort. In fact, the strong separation between active combat (the US) and support roles (Turkey) could be a complicating factor for the NC3 in real warfighting situations.”

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