Nuclear Policy News – July 1, 2021

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Top News:

Germany’s Maas says nuclear deal with Iran could allow Regional talks
Iran International

OPINION: Walking the tightrope: U.S. extended deterrence in Northeast Asia under President Biden
Stimson Center

China is building more than 100 new missile silos in its western desert, analysts say
The Washington Post

United States

OPINION: Walking the tightrope: U.S. extended deterrence in Northeast Asia under President Biden
Stimson Center – Eric Gomez
6/30/2021
In order to enhance extended deterrence and strategic stability in Northeast Asia, the Biden administration must consider the relationship between conventional forces and risks of nuclear escalation.

East Asia

China is building more than 100 new missile silos in its western desert, analysts say
The Washington Post6/30/2021
China has begun construction of what independent experts say are more than 100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in a desert near the northwestern city of Yumen, a building spree that could signal a major expansion of Beijing’s nuclear capabilities.

ANALYSIS: Don’t panic about China’s new nuclear capabilities
The Washington PostJames M. Acton
6/30/2021
The news is likely to fuel the narrative that China is expanding its nuclear capabilities dramatically. But worst-case assumptions have usually been wrong when it comes to China’s nuclear weapons program. There are good reasons to suppose that they’ll also be off-the-mark in this case.

OPINION: China is radically expanding its nuclear missile silos
Foreign PolicyJeffrey Lewis
6/30/2021
With more weapons likely, it’s time to go back to arms talks.

Middle East

U.S. must guarantee it will not leave nuclear deal again, says Iran
The Guardian6/30/2021
A U.S. guarantee that it will never unilaterally leave the Iran nuclear deal again is vital to a successful conclusion of talks in Vienna on the terms of Washington’s return to the agreement, the Iranian ambassador to the UN, Majid Takht-Ravanchi, has said.

Iran, U.S. choices on nuclear deal ‘crystallize’ in Vienna – U.S. envoy
Reuters6/30/2021
The last few rounds of Iran nuclear deal talks in Vienna have “helped to crystallize the choices that need to be made” by Tehran and Washington to achieve a mutual return to compliance, the United States told the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday.

U.S. and Iran show no move to put nuclear deal back on track
Associated Press6/30/2021
The United Nations, European Union and many Security Council members urged the United States and Iran on Wednesday to quickly put the 2015 nuclear deal aimed at reining in Tehran’s nuclear program back on track, but neither side showed any sign of movement toward an agreement.

Germany’s Maas says nuclear deal with Iran could allow Regional talks
Iran International6/30/2021
The German foreign minister added that a successful conclusion of those negotiations could also open the possibility to talk more about “Iran’s regional role”, including as one of the actors shaping the conflict in Yemen.

Amid ongoing talks to fully restore 2015 Nuclear Deal, United States should lift or waive sanctions against Iran, political affairs Chief tells Security Council
United Nations Meetings Coverage6/30/2021
With talks ongoing in Vienna to fully restore the landmark 2015 agreement to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the United Nations political affairs chief called on the United States to lift or waive its sanctions against Tehran, as Security Council delegates rallied the parties to make the difficult political decisions needed to achieve a breakthrough.

Russia

Russia says parties to nuclear talks need more time before new meeting
Reuters
7/1/2021
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-says-parties-nuclear-talks-need-more-time-before-new-meeting-2021-07-01/
Some parties to the Iran nuclear talks need more time before resuming negotiations in Vienna and a new round is unlikely before next week, Russia’s envoy said on Thursday.

ANALYSIS: Grand illusions: The impact of misperceptions about Russia on U.S. policy
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Eugene Rumer and Richard Sokolsky
6/30/2021
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/06/30/grand-illusions-impact-of-misperceptions-about-russia-on-u.s.-policy-pub-84845
Russian muscle-flexing and agility in deploying its tool kit, certain to be enriched as new and even more disruptive technologies become available, will remain a top-tier challenge for the president and his senior national security aides. Russia will also remain a serious national security concern for the United States because of its nuclear arsenal and conventional and cyber capabilities—and because of the U.S. commitment to NATO, which is locked in a tense standoff with Russia, in close proximity to its heartland, for the foreseeable future.

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